Commercial content 21+.
Here’s a great way to ruin a good thing: Tweet something like, “Hey everybody, I’m 8-2 so far in the wild-card round! Click here for my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys side and total.”
As Yogi Berra once said, I shoulda stood in bed on Monday morning instead of tempting fate. My Tampa Bay ATS pick was an easy loser. And the total provided possibly the worst beat of the season, as I had over 45.5 and the game fell on 45 with four missed PAT kicks by Brett Maher, a failed 2-point conversion by the Bucs, an end-zone interception of Tom Brady and a turnover on downs inside the 10-yard line.
Anyway, I hope the 8-4 mark helped the readers make a little money, and now on to the divisional round, which is often the best weekend of football in any given NFL season.
Saturday
New York Giants (+7.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES; Over 48
These teams have met twice this season, including just two weeks ago at Lincoln Financial Field, and yet I get the idea that the Eagles have not yet seen “these Giants.”
These Giants, the ones that beat the Vikings last week, 31-24, in Minneapolis, appear to have a dangerous dual-threat quarterback. Not long ago, the results of Big Blue’s offensive plays ranged from bad to worse. Now, when Jones approaches Saquon Barkley with a run-pass option, it could end up as a big-chunk run for either player or — gasp! — a completed pass to a suddenly viable Isaiah Hodgins.
- Check out more of the Best Sportsbook Promo Codes
These Giants also have Dexter Lawrence destroying the middle. The Eagles didn’t have to face him or many other Giants starters in a 22-16 victory in Week 18 that sealed the NFC’s top seed. Philly was covering as 14-point favorites, leading 19-3 entering the fourth quarter when third-string quarterback Davis Love led two touchdown drives.
Four weeks earlier, the Eagles ransacked MetLife Stadium to the tune of 48-22. Philadelphia recorded seven of its 70 sacks in that game, and Miles Sanders rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns.
Since that game, the Giants are 3-2 straight up and 5-0 ATS to solidify their designation as the best spread team in the NFL this season (14-4). The Eagles were just 8-9 ATS despite their 14-3 overall record, a sign that they let a lot of underdogs hang around.
I don’t want to overstate the coaching here, because I do think the Eagles have an excellent staff, led by Nick Sirianni. Brian Daboll even said after the first meeting that he and his guys were outcoached. But I believe Daboll and Wink Martindale — and maybe you can include Mike Kafka in here as well — are elite game-day minds who give their team the best possible chance. Figuring they learned a lot in that Week 18 game that they can apply here.
Find out more about New York sports betting
- Check out the best NY sports betting sites
- Download the best NY sports betting apps
Isaiah Hodgins Getty ImagesAfter the Overs went 5-1 in the wild-card round, it looks as if the totals have been adjusted a few points upward. This one still feels like a reasonable reach with a forecast of 32 degrees, dry with light winds.
Eagles, 27-23
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars; Under 53
The miracle comeback by the Jaguars from 27-0 down last week against the Chargers could serve to be their undoing at Arrowhead Stadium.
Why? Because it served as a wake-up call to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes that the Chiefs are going to have to stomp out the Jaguars over a full 60 minutes. They know they can’t pull their usual act of jumping out to a lead and holding on, a trait that left them with a 5-11-1 ATS record this season.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
Case in Point 1 is the Nov. 13 meeting with the Jaguars in Kansas City. The Chiefs (-10) jumped out to a 20-0 lead before settling for a push at 27-17.
Case in Point 2 led to shock and tears in the Chiefs’ last home playoff game, the AFC Championship against the Bengals, when their 21-3 lead and their Super Bowl berth both evaporated.
I’m going to try to squeeze this one in Under the total, as I figure both coaches will be looking to grind some clock to keep the ball out of the opposing QB’s hands.
Chiefs, 33-17









