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After a wild offseason of moves, retirements, and un-retirements, the NFL finally returns on Thursday Night Football as the Rams host the Super Bowl-favorite Bills. Looking ahead to the new season, there are plenty of ways to sprinkle some money on the season-long prop bets.

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: There’s a reason the top 15 names on the MVP odds board are quarterbacks. QBs have won the award nine straight seasons and 14 of the past 15. If you are tempted by the longer odds on star players at other positions, know that Cooper Kupp’s near 2,000 receiving yards garnered the nod from just one of the 50 voters, and they all yawned at T.J. Watt’s 22.5 sacks. So pick a passer, but narrow the parameters a little more. You want one who can win at least 12 games and also has an appealing narrative because, remember, this award is selected by humans. I doubt anyone really wants to give it to Aaron Rodgers for the third year in a row. For me, it comes down to Josh Allen versus Justin Herbert. Allen loses Brian Daboll and carries high expectations. You know Herbert will give you the yards; if he turns the Chargers into winners, the MVP could be his. 

Justin Herbert, +850 

Josh Allen, +700 

Trey Lance, 30/1 

Odds via BetMGM 

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: Tom Brady and Justin Herbert were the only two to throw for 5,000+ yards last season. Brady won by 212 yards, but I can’t see the ageless GOAT hitting those heights again after missing a chunk of training camp and now being coached by the uninspiring Todd Bowles. If Herbert captures the MVP, it’ll probably be because he wins this market. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen all probably play a few too many bad-weather games to win this, so look instead at indoor passers Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr (now throwing to Davante Adams). Downlist, keep an eye on Kirk Cousins, who plays indoors, throws to Justin Jefferson and now has an offense-minded coach (Kevin O’Connell). 

Justin Herbert, +700 

Derek Carr, 10/1 

Kirk Cousins, 20/1 

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: Last year in this space, I tried to beat Derrick Henry. While the Titans’ tank did break down and miss half the season, my guy, Dalvin Cook, came in fifth but wasn’t even close. Jonathan Taylor ran away with this prop by 552 yards over No. 2 Nick Chubb. This season, I’m not going to try to dethrone the king. I figure Taylor will have smooth sailing on an indoor track with 37-year-old Matt Ryan all too happy to give him the ball all game long. For that reason I’m not going anywhere near the other favorites who are 10/1 or shorter. Instead, I’m looking at guys on teams with questionable quarterbacks, Najee Harris (Steelers) and Rashaad Penny (Seahawks). Washington’s Antonio Gibson could be worth some pizza money at 30/1. 

Jonathan Taylor, +375 

Najee Harris, 16/1 

Rashaad Penny, 18/1 

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: Cooper Kupp won this easily for his backers in 2021, coming in 331 yards ahead of runner-up Justin Jefferson. I expect Kupp will give it a good go again, based on his performance in the postseason, when defenses knew he would be getting the ball and couldn’t stop him even a little. But instead of going all the way to Los Angeles, let’s take a junket to Vegas and go with Davante Adams. He was third on the list last season but now trades November and December at Lambeau Field for the fast, indoor track off The Strip. Derek Carr might not be the most accurate quarterback but he won’t be shy about heaving the ball downfield in Adams’ direction often. Another solid choice is Ja’Marr Chase, whose 1,455 yards last season may just be a starting point. 

Davante Adams, 12/1 

Ja’Marr Chase, 11/1 

Deebo Samuel, 25/1 

In 2021, these extra props went 3-1, winning on Buccaneers Over 12.5 wins, Daniel Jones Under 3,800.5 passing yards and Trevor Lawrence Over 235.5 rushing yards, and losing on Under 20.5 for the top sack man as T.J. Watt registered 22.5. The three-year record is 8-4, heading into these four predictions: 

The Boids surpassed the +150 Cowboys as division favorites this week, so obviously I’m not the only one who believes the division is there for the taking. With La’el Collins and Amari Cooper gone, Tyron Smith hurt and Ezekiel Elliott aging, Dallas’ offense has taken a big hit. Can’t wait to see what Jalen Hurts can do with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. 

Three of the top five teams on the odds board are the Buccaneers, Rams and Packers, but I don’t love any of those teams this season. My Super Bowl pick is the Chargers, but if they can’t do it, give me the strong, chalky Bills or Chiefs. 

Of course he will have to stay healthy, but this total is 305 yards fewer than what he achieved last season, and now he has Davante Adams to go with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. 

Probably my favorite bet of all of these. Pitts had 68 receptions last year but now he’s undoubtedly the No. 1 target on a team that will be trailing a lot.