The Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers are on a collision course. The odds suggest that Pens vs. Blueshirts is the most likely playoff matchup for Round 1, with Pittsburgh currently in the driver’s seat for home-ice advantage thanks to its three-point lead over the Rangers, who have a game in hand.
Oddsmakers have installed the Penguins as slight -115 favorites for Friday night’s encounter at Madison Square Garden, which tells us that right now the Pens would be the favorites in a best-of-seven.
At the current moment, though, it’s hard to argue that Pittsburgh is a deserving favorite in this matchup, no matter the venue. The Penguins have been one of the NHL’s most consistent teams all season long, while the Rangers are still trying to prove that they can consistently win games without Igor Shesterkin standing on his head.
Igor Shesterkin tends goal against the New Jersey Devils. Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesPittsburgh, on the other hand, has established a sustainable style of play that has led to terrific results both above and below the surface. The Penguins are ninth in 5-on-5 goal differential, sixth in expected goals rate and eighth in high-danger scoring chance rate. The Rangers rank 18th, 29th and 25th in those same categories, which is why plenty of people were skeptical that the Blueshirts would be able to make a run in the postseason.
Some of those skeptics have quieted their doubts after the Rangers bolstered their depth at the trade deadline, but until the Rangers show they’ve improved their 5-on-5 play, bettors are really relying on Shesterkin’s heroics to be New York’s most reliable path to success.
That strategy has paid off for most of this season, but the Rangers are now facing the reality of needing to win games with an out-of-form Shesterkin. The Vezina Trophy shoo-in has been pulled in two of his last five games and has an .878 save percentage in that span.
The current odds make this contest pretty close to a coin flip and I agree with the oddsmakers that Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite over New York, even on Broadway.
Penguins vs. Rangers Best Bet: Penguins -120 or better
