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Every spring we are reminded how quickly things can change in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Just when it looks like we have a good feel for how a series will play out, one play changes everything. In the case of the best-of-7 series between the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues, that play was Nazem Kadri’s collision with Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington.
Binnington was the best player on either team for the first two games of the series and his white-hot form gave St. Louis a viable path to success against the Stanley Cup favorites. A hot goalie can win any best-of-7 series on his own, but when you couple that with the Blues deep offense, you can start to make sense of a St. Louis upset.
Also see: Updated Stanley Cup odds
Avalanche vs. Blues Game 4 odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: COL -1.5 (+150) vs. STL. +1.5 (-185)
Moneyline: COL (-160) vs. STL. (+135)
Total: Over 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-105)
Broadcast: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Avalanche vs. Blues Game 4 prediction
But Binnington’s injury — which is suspected to be serious enough to keep him out of the next few games at the least — has changed all of that.
Now the pressure falls onto the shoulders of Ville Husso. It feels like a long time ago, but Husso was actually the Game 1 starter for the Blues in the postseason, and based on the regular season, the 27-year-old Finn deserved it. Husso posted a .919 save percentage and a +13.5 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 40 games during the regular season. It’s been a different story for Husso in the postseason so far, though, as he’s skated to an .891 save percentage and a -2.2 GSAx in four games.
What is encouraging for the Blues, though, is that they haven’t been caved in at 5-on-5 by the Avalanche, which is what we all thought would happen.
Saint Louis Blues Getty ImagesColorado has the better team at even strength, but its +2 goal differential, +1.1 expected goal difference, and +8 edge in high-danger scoring chances aren’t all that drastic, especially considering how Game 1 played out.
If St. Louis can continue to acquit themselves reasonably well at 5-on-5, then Husso’s task changes from stealing a couple of games to playing strong enough to give the Blues’ opportunistic offense and strong power play the chance to be the difference.
It seems pretty likely that Colorado will take money before puck drop, so if you’re interested in betting the Avalanche, you may want to get your wager in sooner rather than later. On the other hand, if you’re betting the Blues, you can probably sit back and wait out the market.
The forced switch from Binnington to Husso could end up being the final nail in the Blues’ coffin for the series, but in a one-game sample, the number on the underdog is probably going to get high enough to justify a bet.
Avalanche vs. Blues best bet
St. Louis Blues +135 (BetMGM)
