Commercial Content 21+

On paper, the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers had similar seasons to this point. The two clubs were shot out of a cannon in the early going and never faded. Ultimately it was Carolina that finished first in the Metropolitan Division with 116 points, but the Rangers were right there with them until the very end, finishing six points adrift of the Canes by season’s end.

But that’s really where the similarities between these two teams end. While the Rangers are a top-heavy team that relies on its star players – especially the one in goal – to be the difference, the Hurricanes are a balanced, well-drilled machine that is an absolute buzzsaw at 5-on-5.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: NYR +1.5 (-190) vs. CAR -1.5 (+155)

Moneyline: NYR (+135) vs. CAR (-165)

Total: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (=100)

The Hurricanes finished with the third-best goal differential, second-best shot attempt rate, fourth-best expected goals rate, and third-best high-danger scoring chance rate at 5-on-5 this season. That could be a problem for the Rangers, who ranked 14th, 25th, 24th, and 21st, respectively, in those same categories. And while the Blueshirts did show signs of improvement over the course of the season at 5-on-5, those gains did not show up in Round 1 against the Penguins.

Going up against a depleted team, the Rangers struggled mightily to drive play at 5-on-5 and had plenty of issues in their own zone. By the end of the series, the Rangers had conceded 116 high-danger scoring chances to the Penguins at 5-on-5. That’s a huge concern in this series as Carolina is a much stronger 5-on-5 team than the Penguins.

Even so, the Rangers don’t need to tilt the ice at 5-on-5 to have success. The Blueshirts finished with 110 points in a season where their expected goals rate was around 47%. With their high-skill players like Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Adam Fox and Artemi Panarin, the Rangers don’t need a ton of chances to make you pay. Just ask the Penguins.

New York will need to be clinical to contend in this series, but it’s not a given that Carolina will walk through the Rangers. Sure, the Canes should create more scoring chances and they will likely have more of the puck, but Igor Shesterkin gives the Rangers a chance in any type of game and series. 

That said, Shesterkin did wobble at times against the Penguins. Part of that can be chalked up to a porous defense, but the soon-to-be-anointed Vezina Trophy winner wasn’t up to his normal standards in the middle part of Round 1. Shesterkin was still good enough to keep the Rangers in a series in which they were outplayed, but it’s not like his job is going to get any easier against an offense that generated the second-most high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 during the regular season. 

It’s rare you see a total set at 5.5 in the NHL these days and given the volume of chances the Hurricanes should generate and the Rangers’ clinical offense, it’s worth backing the over, even if it moves to a flat 6. 

Over 5.5 goals scored -120 (Caesars)