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The betting market for the first round series between the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins has been fascinating since the matchup became official two weeks ago. At that time, everyone assumed the in-form Blueshirts would be favorites over the Pens.

Not so fast.

It was actually Pittsburgh that opened as slight favorites on the series moneyline, though the line would eventually adjust to Rangers -115 before Game 1. Still, the fact that this best-of-seven series was essentially lined as a pick’em had many folks scratching their heads.

The Rangers were terrific down the stretch while the Penguins were pedestrian, New York had a huge edge in goal and the Blueshirts also had home-ice advantage. On the surface, something wasn’t adding up. But a look under the hood and this series started to look more and more like a coin flip.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: PIT +1.5 (-200) vs. NYR -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline: PIT +120 vs. NYR -145

Total: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)

While the Rangers did have the decided edge in goal and in terms of their current form, the Penguins were the stronger 5-on-5 team during the regular season. Pittsburgh ranked 12th in goal differential, sixth in expected goals rate, and eighth in high-danger scoring chance rate at 5-on-5 in 2021-22. The Rangers finished 20th, 21st, and 21st in those same categories. 

But New York’s pedestrian 5-on-5 numbers weren’t an issue, at least not in the standings. Thanks to incredible goaltending and terrific special teams, the Rangers were able to not only compete for a playoff spot but also challenge for a division title.

Igor Shesterkin’s all-world performance through the first 50-plus games of the season also bought the Rangers plenty of time to make defensive adjustments. Getting results is priority number one, but relying on your goaltender to bail you out every game is not a sustainable route to success. New York did improve down the stretch, thanks in large part to the depth the team added at the trade deadline.

But for some reason those improvements made over the last 20 games of the regular season have not translated into the postseason for the Rangers.

Despite playing almost the entire series without their top two goaltenders, their No. 2 defenseman, and their No. 2 left-wing, the Penguins have swarmed the Rangers at 5-on-5. Perhaps nothing portrays the disparity at 5-on-5 better than the following stat: Pittsburgh has created 103 high-danger scoring chances so far in this series, while the Rangers have generated just 51. 

Despite all the adversity they’ve faced, there’s no arguing that the Penguins have been the better team in this series, but the cutting room floor of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is littered with “better teams.”

So, here we are with New York sitting as a -145 favorite for Game 7 after coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. That the Rangers have survived to a Game 7 is a testament to their resilience and a reminder that hockey is a cruel sport, driven by which team catches the breaks.

While Rangers fans may still be smarting over an overturned goal in Game 1, they’ve benefited from plenty of good fortune in this series.

Not only has Pittsburgh played almost the entire series with their No. 3 goaltender Louis Domingue in the blue paint, but the Penguins have played the last game and a half without Sidney Crosby and have been missing Brian Dumoulin and Rickard Rakell since Game 1. Crosby’s absence since the middle of Game 5 has been especially profound since he was the best player in the series by a country mile. 

At the end of the day, this series has been completely off the rails and all of Pittsburgh’s injuries make it a tough game to handicap. However, it does seem that there’s a decent chance we see Crosby, Rakell, and Jarry in the lineup on Sunday night.

Even with the lineup uncertainty, it’s hard to look away from the price on Pittsburgh in this game. The Penguins’ advantage at 5-on-5 has been drastic and with Shesterkin clearly fighting to find his game, the Rangers’ biggest advantage in this series looks to be muted. There’s always a chance that Shesterkin snaps back into his world-beating form, but that’s a risk you’re always taking with goalies of his caliber. 

Penguins vs. Rangers: Pittsburgh Penguins +115 or better (+120 on BetRivers Sportsbook)