With just over a month left in this MLB season, we already know which team the NL Rookie of the Year will hail from. That’s where the answers run dry.

Braves standouts Spencer Strider (-175) and Michael Harris (+125) are the clear betting favorites at BetMGM to win the award, as they have been since separating from the pack in late July. Ahead of the final month of the season, those two are the only players dealing shorter than +10000.

Strider has been the top option nearly that entire time, though Harris has flirted with front-runner status and is still hot on his teammate’s trail. Which one is the better bet to win it by season’s end?

It’s not easy to win NL Rookie of the Year as a pitcher – only reliever Devin Williams (2020) has done it in the last seven years – but Strider’s versatility and dominance on the mound is simply too much to ignore.

The Braves righty opened the year as a reliever and was electric, posting a 2.22 ERA and an MLB-best 38.9 percent strikeout rate in 24.1 innings of work. Then Atlanta moved him into the starting rotation, and after a tough first start, he’s hardly skipped a beat. Since June 1, he leads all MLB starters in FIP (2.11) and strikeout rate (36.1 percent) among those with 50 innings pitched, and his season total for wins above replacement (3.6) ranks 12th among all pitchers as of Wednesday, per Fangraphs.

Of course, his ranks among rookies are similarly superb. He’s nearly doubled the field in fWAR and paces all rookies in FIP (2.05) while ranking second in strikeout rate (36.7 percent) and sixth in SIERA (2.56). Any way you slice it, Strider has been a stud in his first full season, steadying a Braves staff that has battled inconsistency and injury.

While Strider has been the missing piece for Atlanta’s rotation, Harris has been a fixture in the batting order, leading his team in batting average (.296) entering Wednesday’s action.

In fact, Harris’ fWAR (3.6) equals that of his rookie teammate despite playing in just 83 games, and he ranks 30th among hitters across both leagues. By that metric, Harris has been a top-10 player this year on a per-game basis, and he ranks in the top 20 in wOBA (.368) and OPS (.852) among those with at least 300 plate appearances.

He’s been a fiend on the base paths, too, swiping 16 bases in those 83 games to lead all NL rookies. He also leads that group in WAR, batting average, and wOBA and ranks second in slugging percentage (.512) with a month still to go.

Typically, hitters get the benefit of the doubt in a race like this, especially with both players mirroring each other in easy catch-all metrics like WAR and team success. Here’s the problem for Harris: he hasn’t shown enough home run power.

Yes, he’s only played in a half-season of games, and perhaps he’ll get there by October. Still, aside from a shortened 2020, the last six hitters to win the AL Rookie of the Year finished with at least 20 home runs, and they all posted at least 60 RBIs. At this point, Harris (13 HR, 45 RBIs) has some work to do in that department, even as his power nets plenty of doubles in the gaps.

That opens the door for Strider to steal this award thanks to his prolific strikeout numbers, which are always an X-factor in the awards market. There’s still time for the tides to turn in this race, but the better bet is on the versatile righty to pull away from his rookie teammate.