Well, I’d say this was a success. 

The Jayhawks have been one of the best teams in the country all season, but the Tar Heels have clearly been the top team in the NCAA Tournament, knocking off three legitimate title threats (Duke, Baylor, UCLA) to improve to 10-1 in their past 11 games, while going 9-2 against the spread. 

Kansas was impressive against Villanova, but all teams look incredible when they make 13 of 24 3-pointers. Facing an undersized opponent without its top defender and second-leading scorer didn’t hurt, either. 

Kansas struggled against undermanned/smaller teams earlier in the tournament (Creighton, Providence), but the Jayhawks won’t hold such an advantage against Armando Bacot and the top-rebounding unit in the nation. 

During this run, the Tar Heels have been more consistent offensively, hitting double-digit 3-pointers in four of five tournament games, with multiple clutch performances by Caleb Love. While Kansas faces the pressure of a program that’s failed to parlay Big 12 titles into national titles for most of the past 14 years, North Carolina has peaked as a team playing with house money, relishing the program’s rare expectation-free ride from bubble status to title contender. 

Picking North Carolina comes with the concern that it already won its most important game — beating its biggest rival (Duke) on the sport’s biggest stage, prompting the streets of Chapel Hill to overflow in celebration — but the 1980 U.S Hockey Team and 2004 Red Sox managed to be at their best for their respective final matchups after similarly euphoric penultimate-round affairs. 

The Tar Heels will be ready. They have been every round, beginning with a 32-point beatdown of Marquette and including the silencing of Saint Peter’s Cinderella run. When the night is over, it won’t be surprising to see first-year coach Hubert Davis having matched Bill Self’s career total of national championships. 

This season: 26-34 

2011-21 Record: 292-259-9