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There is a lot on the line in the MAC on Tuesday night.

For the Ohio Bobcats, they now control their own destiny in the MAC East after defeating Miami (Ohio) 37-21 last week. Ohio has two games left on the schedule, and if they win them both, they’ll be headed to Detroit, Michigan, for the MAC Championship.

For Ball State, they need to win one of their last two games to become bowl-eligible this season.

Let’s break it down.

Spread: OH -3.5 (-110) vs. Ball +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: OH (-170) vs. Ball (+140)

Total: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

The Ohio Bobcats have been quite kind to bettors this season. Ohio has won five games in a row — including three as underdogs — and the Bobs have also gone 6-0 Against the Spread (ATS) in divisional games. 

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been the main reason for Ohio’s surge this season, as the junior has elevated his game to a whole new level in 2022. Rourke is throwing for over 300 yards per game and is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. Rourke has 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions on the year.

All of this adds up to Ohio sitting with the 17th-best passing success rate in the country. 

And while the passing game has been electric, the rest of Ohio’s offense leaves something to be desired. The Bobcats are just 107th in rushing success rate and 74th in finishing drives.

Like the Bobcats, Ball State is an offense that prefers to do damage through the air. That said, we could see the Cardinals make a more concerted effort to keep the ball on the ground and feed running back Carson Steele. 

The sophomore is averaging 138 yards per game against MAC teams this season and has 12 touchdowns to his name this season. Steele has been in the exceptional form down the stretch, rushing for 390 yards and three touchdowns over his last two contests (Kent State, Toledo).

Steele’s form should lead to more opportunities, which is definitely a plus for a Ball State offense that throws the ball a ton but to limited success. 

Ohio has shown that it can be leaky against the run — the Bobcats allowed 338 rushing yards to Kent State and 267 to Northern Illinois — so look for the Cardinals to pound the rock and take some pressure off the passing game. 

That should make life easier for quarterback John Paddock against a defense that ranks 116th in passing success rate this season.

Ohio has been red-hot, and MACtion bettors will be more than happy to return to the Bobs in this spot. That should create some contrarian value for the Cardinals. 

Spend your MACtion money selling high on Ohio.

Ball State +3.5 (FanDuel)