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The Colorado Avalanche have spent nearly the entire 2021-22 NHL season atop the oddsboard. The Avalanche were +475 Stanley Cup favorites to start the campaign and never really budged during the regular season. 

Despite a minor wobble here and there, the Avalanche’s status as the best team in the NHL was never really challenged. The Florida Panthers ran roughshod through the regular season, but it was always apparent that the Cats had one-too-many flaws for that success to be replicated in the playoffs. The Avalanche, on the other hand, never really missed a beat, even as they were dealing with a host of injuries to key players like Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Nazem Kadri and Devon Toews. 

Odds provided by BetMGM

Series moneyline: EDM (+200) vs. COL (-250)

Series spread: EDM +1.5 (-110) vs. COL -1.5 (-110)

Colorado’s journey through the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs has not looked all that dissimilar to their performance in the regular season. The Avs imposed their will on the overmatched Nashville Predators in a four-game sweep in Round 1 and then dealt with dispatched a strong St. Louis Blues team in six games in Round 2.

The victory over the Blues also put to rest some playoff demons for the Avalanche, who had been eliminated in the first or second round four years in a row before this season.

On the eve of the Western Conference Finals against the Edmonton Oilers, the Avalanche have shortened to +120, which converts to a 45.5% chance, according to implied win probability.

All of that may make it seem like a trip to the Stanley Cup Final is inevitable for Colorado, but there are reasons to believe that a matchup with the Oilers won’t be as straightforward as the odds suggest. Colorado is -250 to win the series and -175 to take Game 1, but count out Edmonton at your own risk.

While the Avalanche’s talent and depth may win out over the course of a best-of-7 series, the Oilers should be a live underdog on a game-by-game basis — and it’s not just because of Connor McDavid.

McDavid’s other-worldly form is certainly a huge part of the equation, but Edmonton’s overall game has been trending in the right direction ever since firing Dave Tippett and replacing him with Jay Woodcroft.

The Oilers went 26-9-3 under Woodcroft in the regular season, which is good enough for a 119-point pace over an 82-game season. To put that in perspective: The Avalanche finished this season with 119 points.

This isn’t to say the Oilers are in the same tier as the Avalanche, but it does suggest that the gap between these two teams has closed considerably over the last few months. 

Part of that shrinking gap is the goaltending battle. A few weeks ago, you’d have sounded a bit crazy if you dubbed Mike Smith as the stronger netminder in a matchup with Darcy Kuemper, but based on current form that is the case. Smith has skated to a .927 save percentage and a +8.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) through 12 games this postseason, while Kuemper has posted a .904 save percentage and a -3 GSAx. 

Those numbers may not accurately depict the true talent level of Smith and Kuemper, but right now it’s hard not to give the edge to Edmonton’s ageless wonder, especially since Kuemper looked a bit out of sorts during the business end of Round 2 against St. Louis.

It is a requirement to win the goaltending battle if you’re going to have a chance to upset a heavy favorite like the Avalanche, but with Smith trending up and Kuemper trending down, that task has become a little easier for the Oilers. 

The Avalanche are the favorites in this series — and to win the Stanley Cup — for a reason. But with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in form and the goaltending looking like it could favor the Oilers, there are enough paths to success available for a bet on the Oilers to pull the upset.

Best bet: Edmonton Oilers to win the series (+200) — BetMGM