Though No. 1 Virginia and No. 12 Oregon both rank in the bottom 45 in the country in pace of play, with Virginia having the fewest possessions per game of any team in the country, the point total of 119 in tonight’s NCAA Sweet 16 matchup (9:59 p.m. ET, TBS) is overblown to the under.

Despite playing a very slow brand of basketball, Virginia ranks fourth in the country in points scored per possession on offense. As a team, the Cavaliers convert 40.2 percent of their 3s. While the Ducks rank sixth in the country in opponents’ 3-point shooting defense, the Cavaliers have four rotation players that hit at least 40 percent of their 3s.

Oregon also gives up a lot of points with the clock stopped as Oregon is 227th in opponent free-throw attempts per field goal attempt. And with the Cavaliers shooting 74 percent at the line as a team, it should put a lot of free points on the board.

As for Oregon, the Ducks have scored 66 or more points in nine of their last 10 games despite more than 61 points twice in that span, with one of those games going to overtime. The Ducks rank 21st in the country in steals per possession while on defense, which lends itself to fast break opportunities on offense.

Though both teams certainly play tremendous defense, this is a total that seems to be too low and presents a lot of value to the over, especially if the 8.5-point spread is a sharp one, as that will cause for end-of-game fouling.

The pick: Take the over in Oregon vs. Virginia.