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A midsummer showdown between the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles won’t exactly be a ratings bonanza, but the reality of betting on baseball is that these ugly games often provide the best value. And, judging by the starting pitching matchup, this one could get ugly.

If you look at their peripheral metrics, there really isn’t much that separates Glenn Otto of the Rangers and Spenser Watkins of the Orioles. According to StatCast, Otto ranks in the bottom 1 percent of the league in both xwOBA (.406) and xERA (6.59).

Watkins is marginally better in both categories, sitting in the fourth percentile with a .390 xwOBA and 5.97 xERA through 41 innings. The difference between the two hurlers, though, is in current form.

While Otto has allowed 10 earned runs in six innings over his last two outings, Watkins has allowed just one run on eight hits and two walks in his last 11 frames, which came on the heels of a stint on the IL.

The Orioles and Rangers boast similar records and their offenses are basically a wash. And while the big picture makes it seem like neither of these pitchers should be trusted, Watkins’ recent improvements do inspire some confidence, especially with Baltimore sitting as an underdog in what looks like a coin-flip game.

Orioles -110 — BetMGM.