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The Orioles’ eight-game road trip didn’t get off to a good start on Thursday after a 7-5 loss to the Royals in the series opener. Baltimore will try to bounce back with left-hander Bruce Zimmerman (2-4) set to make his 12th start.
Kansas City will counter with Jonathan Heasley, who at 0-3, is still searching for his first win of the year. However, despite Heasley’s winless run, the Royals are slight favorites at some sportsbooks.
Let’s dig into the numbers and assess if the oddsmakers got this one right or whether we should look to the visiting Orioles to find some value.
Orioles vs. Royals MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: BAL -1.5 (+145) vs. KC +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline: BAL (-110) vs. KC (-110)
Total: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Orioles vs. Royals probable pitchers
Bruce Zimmerman (2-4, 4.87) vs. Jonathan Heasley (0-3, 4.62)
Baltimore Orioles APOrioles vs. Royals prediction
As much as I’d like to root for Heasley, his flowing locks, and the Kenny Powers, Eastbound & Down vibe he brings to the table, I can’t commit to backing him at the betting window. The Texas native has been his own worst enemy on the mound due to his lack of command. Heasley allowed at least two walks in each of his five outings which explains his unflattering 1.70 WHIP. Last season, he finished with a 1.23 WHIP in six starts.
I took a look at Heasley’s pitch mix, and according to FanGraphs, he added a slider to his arsenal, which also includes a four-seam fastball (49.3%), changeup (22.3%), and a curveball (21.4%). However, I’m not sure his introduction of the slider is solely to blame for the increase in walks. After all, he throws it only 11.1% of the time, a significantly lower usage than his other three pitches.
Heasley also carries a 4.62 ERA, but his advanced numbers signal even further regression given his 6.25 xFIP and a 6.38 FIP. In contrast, Zimmerman has a 1.34 WHIP with a 4.87 ERA, and his advanced numbers point to only a slight regression, as evidenced by a 4.19 xFIP and 5.31 FIP.
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There’s no doubt that Zimmerman is the more reliable pitcher, and my model shows a stronger preference for the Orioles in this matchup. Kansas City has also been slightly worse against left-handers given their .232 BA/.304 OBP/.342 SLG split vs. a .238 BA/.300 OBP/.368 SLG against right-handers.
Whenever you can grab the better team at a pick’em their price, it’s worth doing so. The Orioles have a -36 run differential despite playing in the only division that boasts four teams with a win percentage over .500. As for the Royals, they’re -90 in run differential while playing in the AL Central with two teams above .500.
If the Orioles can get anything out of Zimmerman, they should have the edge in the bullpen. Baltimore’s relievers rank sixth with a 3.08 ERA, while the Royals bullpen is 28th with a 4.80 ERA. Moreover, RotoWire’s Bullpen Usage shows that Kansas City’s closer, Scott Barlow, might even be unavailable after throwing 50 pitches over the past two days. Barlow has six of Kansas City’s ten saves, and his 1.3 WAR rating is the highest on the entire Royals pitching staff.
Thus, when you put it all together, I think the Orioles are worth a look, and I would play them up to -120.
Orioles vs. Royals pick
Orioles ML -110 (BetMGM)
