Considering that the Giants are 2-8 and the Jets 3-7, this is a surprisingly interesting NFL Sunday for New York football fans and bettors.
The Giants visit the Chicago Bears, another 2019 disappointment dealing with coaching and quarterback drama (1 p.m., Fox). The Jets host the Oakland Raiders (1 p.m., CBS), a big surprise team that has a chance to reach the AFC playoffs.
A review of regular-season win totals from this past summer help add some context to these matchups.
- The Giants were projected to win six games. Sportsbook customers could bet Over or Under that total. A 2-8 record means the G-Men must finish 4-2 just to push, 5-1 to cash Over tickets. That’s going to be tough with three of their last five games against playoff contenders (Green Bay, then Philadelphia twice). A 3-7 record against the spread confirms a failure to meet expectations.
- The Bears were projected to win nine games after last year’s stunning 12-4 campaign. Chicago enters the week 4-6, needing to run the table to cash Over tickets. That’s not going to happen with the Bears’ last four games coming against playoff contenders. Chicago’s also 3-7 ATS. Dramatic changes could be coming on or off the field with both franchises.
- The Raiders already have matched a market target of six wins with their current 6-4 record. A win at MetLife Stadium would clinch the Over. Oakland’s 6-4 ATS record also helps explain all the newfound enthusiasm for the Jon Gruden-Derek Carr combo.
- The Jets are a long shot to surpass a market expectation of 7¹/₂ victories. From a 3-7 starting point (same as their ATS record), they would need a 5-1 finish against a slate that includes Oakland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.
Both games offer a difficult handicap. Chicago has been sitting as a six-point favorite over the Giants through the week. It’s tough to lay points with a floundering host. It’s tough to love a mistake-prone rookie QB like Daniel Jones on the road. Sharps clearly don’t like the favorite at -6 or they would have jumped in below the key number of seven.
Oakland has been a three-point road favorite all week. Many bettors avoid backing West Coast teams in “bad-body-clock” games in the early TV window. If sharps loved the Jets at the key number of three, that line would have been 2¹/₂ by midweek.
We finish with VSiN’s updated “market” power ratings as compiled by Jonathan Von Tobel (“The Edge”) and I (Jeff Fogle). We use settled late-week point spreads, adjusting three points for home-field advantage.
- AFC: Patriots 87, Ravens 86, Chiefs 85, Texans 82, Colts 81, Bills 80, Steelers 80, Raiders 80, Chargers 80, Browns 79, Jaguars 79, Titans 79, Broncos 79, Jets 74, Dolphins 71, Bengals 71.
- NFC: Saints 86, 49ers 85, Packers 84, Vikings 84, Cowboys 83, Seahawks 82, Eagles 80, Rams 80, Falcons 79, Panthers 79, Lions 79 (75 with Jeff Driskel), Buccaneers 78, Bears 78, Cardinals 78, Giants 75, Redskins 72.
