The announcement Aaron Rodgers had tested positive for COVID-19 did more than alter the spread for the Packers’ game Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs. The total for the game dropped significantly as well. The total was in the mid-50s and now sits at 48 with backup quarterback Jordan Love getting the call for the Packers. You can say what you want about the spread adjustment and likely would be justified, but this total has been overadjusted, in my opinion.

It is a leap of faith to bet on Love in this situation, given that we haven’t seen much of him in his young career, but it is far from a stretch to fade the Chiefs’ defense. Kansas City’s defense has been put in some suboptimal spots because of turnovers, but has allowed the most yards per play in the NFL with 6.4 and can’t really stop the run or the pass.

The Chiefs have not done a good job of generating pressure this season, which should give Love the opportunity to go through his progressions. Kansas City also came into this week 26th in yards allowed per carry, so Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon could find success on the ground.

The 19 turnovers are a huge story for the Chiefs, but when you consider that they’ve had all of those and have still scored on more than 44 percent of their possessions, you have to think about how much talent this offense still has. Even with the interceptions and wasted possessions, the Chiefs are fourth in passing touchdowns and fifth in passing yards per game.

It will be a much nicer day at Arrowhead compared to the nighttime weather we saw this past Monday for the game against the Giants. The absence of Rodgers may hurt Green Bay’s offense, but the Chiefs’ defense may be just the cure.

The play: Packers-Chiefs total, Over 48.