The Sunday night game between the Packers and Chiefs certainly lost some of its shimmer when Patrick Mahomes went down with a knee injury last week in Kansas City’s win at Denver. At the same time, that makes this week’s handicap very interesting and also provides opportunity.
If Mahomes were healthy and starting this game, I would make the Chiefs a home favorite, laying somewhere between 5 ¹/₂ and 6 ¹/₂ points to the Packers. With veteran backup quarterback Matt Moore getting the call, I make the game a pick ’em. In my mind, I feel a six-or seven-point adjustment is necessary for the switch to Moore from Mahomes. At the very most, I would make Green Bay a two-point favorite.
The Packers were favored by as many as five points very early in the week. We’ve seen as low as 3 ¹/₂, and currently Green Bay -4 is the consensus number. With the posted line being at least a field goal different from my number, this gives us our first reason to look at backing the home underdog.
Second is what’s being overlooked in last week’s Green Bay win at home over the Raiders. Most are pointing to Aaron Rodgers’ terrific six-touchdown performance, but I rather noticed Oakland’s ability to scorch the middle of the Packers’ defense at will. If not for Derek Carr’s terrible decision to stretch out for the goal line on second down at the end of the first half, eventually fumbling out of the back of the end zone, the Raiders might have won this game and definitely would have kept it close.
I feel as if the home team will rally around Moore, knowing MVP candidate Mahomes needs the rest of the team to elevate its game in his absence. I believe there is a coaching advantage for Andy Reid over Matt LaFleur, and I also believe Green Bay is being overvalued. The Packers were fortunate to beat the Vikings and the Broncos, who both blew multiple chances to win at Lambeau. They lost to the Eagles, they were very strangely lucky to beat Detroit and we’ve already talked about the truth that lies beneath in the Raiders game.
The play: Chiefs, +4.
