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Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Patriots vs. Bengals predictions and picks for their NFL Week 16 showdown, which is live Saturday on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

Coming off one of the most demoralizing losses in recent memory, the New England Patriots will return to Foxborough, Massachusetts, and try to pick up the pieces against a surging Cincinnati Bengals team that can officially lock up a playoff berth.

For the better part of two decades, silly mistakes were few and far between for New England. Those types of personal blunders simply didn’t align with the “The Patriot Way,” which was Bill Belichick’s long-standing philosophy that emphasized good, clean football. But now careless mistakes seem to be piling up, and perhaps none were more evident than New England’s lateral play at the end of its game against the Raiders last week. That mishap might have cost the Patriots the contest, but it didn’t cost them a playoff berth just quite yet.

The road doesn’t get easier for New England, especially with the Bengals coming to town. Cincinnati has won eight of its last nine to vault into first place in the AFC North, and not even a 17-0 deficit against the greatest quarterback of all time could slow the Bengals down last Sunday. After getting oh so close to a championship last season, Cincinnati now finds itself peaking at the right time with aspirations of getting the job done this time around.

As the saying goes, good teams win, but great teams cover. If that statement does, in fact, reign true, put this year’s Bengals squad in the Hall of Fame.

Cincinnati is 11-3 against the spread this season and has covered in each of its last six games. Meanwhile, the Patriots have failed to cover in three of their last four, making Saturday’s matchup a battle of two teams heading in completely opposite directions.

Don’t overthink things here — ride the hot hand. This is a very winnable game for the Bengals, and when New England loses, it doesn’t keep things close. Six of the Patriots’ seven losses have come by at least six points this season, while the other one would have resulted in a push (27-24 loss to Green Bay on Oct. 2) in this instance.

Pick: Bengals to cover -3.0 at -120 with Caesars Sportsbook

If there’s been any token of consistency for New England this season, it’s been its defense’s ability to keep opposing running backs out of the end zone.

The Patriots have allowed backs to score just three TDs, the fewest in the league. Joe Mixon racked up 136 on 25 carries in his lone game against New England but still couldn’t will his way over the goal line.

So, what does this all mean? Well, if Cincinnati wants to consistently put up six, it’s going to have to do so via Burrow. He’s thrown two scoring strikes in four of his last five games, including in each of the last three.  

Although receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) and tight end Hayden Hurst (calf) — a duo that’s combined for eight receiving TDs — were limited in practice this week, Higgins should be back at the very least. Even if one, or both, sit out, Burrow still should have no issues utilizing Tyler Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase and others to ensure this prop hits.

Pick: Joe Burrow to throw for more than 1.5 touchdowns @ -154 with Caesars Sportsbook

Over the past five games, Chase has become awfully familiar with the end zone.

He’s hauled in seven touchdowns over that stretch, and going up against a firm Patriots rushing defense will force the Bengals to lean on the passing game.

With Higgins ailing, Chase should get even more looks in New England territory and in the red zone, making this a must-bet for the Christmas Eve slate. Pairing this wager with the Burrow prop could also be a great play because if one hits, the other likely will, too. Taking this prop at plus odds is an absolute steal.

Pick: Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown scorer +118 with Caesars Sportsbook

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.