Commercial content 21+.

Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions and picks for their NFL Week 17 showdown, which is live Sunday on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

On the cusp of securing a playoff berth, the Miami Dolphins will attempt to snap a four-game losing streak while dealing a lethal blow to the New England Patriots’ postseason aspirations when the teams clash in Foxborough, Mass.

For the Dolphins, Sunday’s meeting with New England has seemingly been two decades in the making. The Patriots have finished above Miami in the AFC East in 19 of the past 21 seasons, but it’s the Dolphins who have the upper hand heading into the penultimate contest of the current campaign. A Miami victory and New York Jets loss would punch the Dolphins’ ticket to the playoffs while simultaneously eliminating New England from postseason contention.

But there’s still a sliver of hope for the Patriots, who might not have to worry about facing Tua Tagovailoa if he doesn’t clear concussion protocol. Although its back is up against the wall, New England has never shied away from a challenge. However, it’s going to take a lot more than a Malcolm Butler interception at the goal line or a mesmerizing 28-3 comeback if the Patriots want to ascend from the depths and be playing football well into the new year.

Although the Dolphins haven’t been able to pick up a win since Nov. 27, there’s no better time than the present to turn things around.

Facing New England could be a welcome sight, as the Dolphins have taken four straight games against their AFC East rival dating back to 2020. It’s not like the Patriots have been trending in the opposite direction, either, as they’ve dropped four of their last five while being outscored 46-28 in their last two games in Foxborough.

Slow starts have become a thorn in New England’s side, causing the Patriots to trail by an average of 12.3 points at halftime over the last four games. That type of performance won’t fly against a typically high-powered Miami offense, so expect the Dolphins to exploit New England’s early-game struggles.

This line is going to be heavily influenced by Tagovailoa’s availability, so be cautious with it. Should Miami be without their starting quarterback, the odds will likely jump in a bettor-friendly direction, but should he play, they’ll surely take a dip. Consider making a wager at plus-odds while it’s an option.

Patriots vs. Dolphins pick: Dolphins to win money line @ +140 with Caesars Sportsbook

Points have been extremely difficult to come by for New England against its division rivals.

The Patriots have scored no more than 22 points in seven of their last eight games against AFC East opponents dating back to last season (including playoffs), including a season-opening 20-7 loss to this same Dolphins team.

New England hasn’t been able to rise to the occasion on its home turf, either, averaging just 15.6 points over its last five home games.

This is no longer the Tom Brady-led offense of old. Play calling has been poor, injuries have hampered the running game — which was one of the team’s major strengths — and quarterback Mac Jones hasn’t really made significant improvements in Year 2. Expect the Patriots to come up short of their team total this week.

Patriots vs. Dolphins pick: Patriots to score under 22.5 points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

With it looking increasingly likely that Teddy Bridgewater will be the one stepping under center for Miami, the Dolphins’ run game is going to be vital come Sunday.

Mostert has been splitting time with Jeff Wilson Jr. in the backfield, but the former seems to be the No. 1 option. He’s tallied at least eight carries in 12 of the last 13 games, getting a minimum of 11 in eight of those contests.

The opportunities are going to be there for Mostert, he just has to take advantage of them — something he wasn’t able to do in Miami’s first meeting with the Patriots this season. Mostert went for just 16 yards on five carries in that contest, so be on the lookout for a revenge game in Week 17.

Patriots vs. Dolphins pick: Raheem Mostert over 60.5 rushing yards @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.