This season could be a special one for Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. He led the majors with 29 home runs entering Friday. He had appeared in 75 of the Yankees’ 77 games, while making 73 starts. If he stays healthy, he’ll be on pace to play in 158 games with 154 starts.

Judge was hitting a home run once every 9.9 at-bats, and is the odds-on favorite to win the home run crown at -155. But with three months remaining in the regular season, does he still have value at the current price? Or should we perhaps look for another challenger?

Let’s dig into the numbers.

After poring over Judge’s stats, one thing that stood out is that he has produced six multi-home run games this season. In context, of the three players tied for second with 23 dingers, only Mike Trout, with four, has more than three multi-home run games.

Judge is currently hitting one home run every 2.66 games. His pace of 154 starts is two more than his career-high in 2017. As things stand, Judge is also on pace to hit 58 home runs.

In 2017 when Judge made 152 starts, he hit 52 home runs. Based on those numbers, it’s likely we see at least some regression as my numbers project him to finish with closer to 54 home runs. As a result, it will likely require a minimum of 50 dingers this season to be in the mix for the home run crown.

Interestingly, despite hitting 52 home runs to lead the AL in 2017, Judge didn’t lead the majors. That honor went to his current teammate, Giancarlo Stanton, who hit 59 dingers for the Marlins in the NL. Heading into July that season, Stanton had just 21 home runs while Judge had 28. That could bode well this year for players who find themselves as high as seven home runs off the pace.

One player within the range of seven home runs behind Judge is Mets slugger Pete Alonso. Alonso had hit 22 home runs entering Friday, and has the third shortest odds in the home run race at +700. In his 2019 rookie season, Alonso mashed 53 dingers to break Judge’s rookie home run record from 2017.

There’s no doubt Alonso is a player who can heat up in a hurry. Who can forget his performance in 2019, when he bested Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with 23 home runs in the final round of the Home Run Derby. Or the six consecutive home runs he hit during bonus time to repeat as the Home Run Derby champion in 2021.

Although Alonso trails Judge in the home run race, it’s worth noting the Mets slugger continues to evolve as a hitter. His .280 batting average is a career high, and according to FanGraphs’ StatCast, Alonso’s hard-hit rate of 45.4 percent is higher than in 2019 (42.2), when he set the rookie home run record.

As a result, I think Alonso is worth a look given his current odds at +700. Expect a hot summer in New York, with both Judge and Alonso competing for the home run crown.