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Game 1 of the World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros is set to get underway on Friday, October 28, at 8:04 p.m. ET on Fox. Aaron Nola is slated to start for the Phillies, who are +140 underdogs, and Justin Verlander is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Astros, who sit at -166. The Over/Under is currently hanging at 6.5 runs.

The Astros have yet to lose in the postseason. Should bettors pay the juice and back the streak to continue on Friday night?

Odds via FanDuel

Dusty Baker’s Houston Astros were a picture of consistency this season. After losing to the Braves in the 2021 World Series, there were plenty of questions about how the ‘Stros would get back up the mountain without Carlos Correa. The answer was pretty easy.

The Astros were pretty much in cruise control the entire campaign, finishing with 106 wins to put them 16 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.

A well-balanced team, the Astros finished second in the MLB in ERA (2.90), xFIP (3.56), and WHIP (1.09), while also posting top-10 marks in wOBA (.324), OPS (.743) and wRC+ (112). Against right-handed pitching, those numbers dipped a little bit to .317, .726, and 107.

After struggling to get going against the Mariners, the Astros offense has heated up a bit with 17 runs in a four-game sweep of the Yankees. Houston has some game-wreckers in the lineup, but there’s usually no pressure on this group to post crooked numbers because the pitching behind them is so effective.

But the offense could be hard to come by against Nola, who entered the postseason with a 3.25 ERA, 2.77 xFIP and some of the best peripheral metrics in the MLB. Nola ranked in the 99th percentile in walk rate, 85th percentile in strikeout rate, and 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate.

In all likelihood, Nola will have to be on form to stay with Justin Verlander, and even though he was not great in his last outing, the LSU alumni still owns a 3.12 ERA and 2.58 xFIP in 17.1 innings this postseason.

Verlander’s numbers are Cy Young-worthy, and he’ll be taking on an offense that swings first and asks questions later, but he has yet to look like his dominant self in the postseason. Verlander got rocked in his first outing and then started slowly against the Yankees in Game 1 before finding his form. He was able to get away with that sluggish start against Jameson Taillon and a struggling Yankee offense, but Nola won’t leave him much room for error.

The Astros have most of the advantages in this game and series, but the gap between these two teams isn’t all that wide, especially when Nola is on the mound. Philadelphia finished just ahead of Houston in wOBA (.322), 10th-best wRC+ (106), and eighth-best OPS (.739) during the regular season and the Phillies have several players in great form right now. The Astros deserve to be the favorite, but this is closer than the odds suggest.

Phillies +140 (FanDuel)