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Wednesdays haven’t been very profitable for MLB underdogs. According to our Action Labs database, teams in that spot are 86-133 this season for a loss of 17.58 units. A heavy day-game schedule, however, does allow us to exploit another betting angle.
One matchup that could offer some value is the Phillies wrapping up their two-game series in Atlanta.
After a day off on Monday, Philadelphia headed into Atlanta on a five-game winning streak.
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Zack Wheeler will get the start for the visitors against Charlie Morton, who is struggling to match the success of last season, when he started 33 games and went 14-6 with a 3.34. This year, he’s 5-5 with a 4.34 ERA through 20 starts.
Zack Wheeler pitches for the Phillies. Getty ImagesThe most significant difference for the Braves right-hander is he’s falling behind hitters more often, as his first pitch strike rate of 56.4% is his lowest mark in the past 11 years. That’s a big reason his walks are up, as evidenced by a 3.44 BB/9 ratio.
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The Phillies have the fifth-best mark during day games at 20-14 (+2.89 units), while the Braves are the least profitable team at 16-17 for a loss of 7.45 units. I think the wrong team is favored.
Phillies vs. Braves pick
Phillies +125 — FanDuel
