Entering the weekend, 21 MLB teams were averaging at least 4.5 runs per game this season, and the Miami Marlins were not one of them. The Fish were at just over 2.7, the only team scoring fewer than three runs per game. Saturday, they will face Jake Arrieta, a pitcher who went seven innings and gave up one run when these teams met April 12.

Miami will pitch the solid Trevor Richards, who despite an 0-3 record has surrendered more than three runs in just one start this season. He is also catching the Phillies at a good time. Their top two infielders with regards to batting average, Jean Segura and Scott Kingery, both are on the 10-day injured list.

Going into Friday, the Phillies had scored more than three runs in two of their past nine games, with the Marlins exceeding three runs just once out of their last 10. While neither bullpen is great, with Philadelphia’s bullpen ranking 13th in the MLB with regard to ERA and the Marlins 21st, the solid starting pitching and the recent power outage by both teams should lead to a lower-scoring game.

The play: Phillies-Marlins, Under 8.