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Thursday’s MLB action features a smaller card with just 10 scheduled games. However, the best play on the board looks to be the Philadelphia Phillies visiting Pittsburgh. Zack Wheeler will start for Philadelphia, and Zach Thompson is in line to start for Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia was 5-5 in its last 10 games heading into Wednesday. However, Pittsburgh’s been even worse in going just 2-8 during that stretch. I’ve often felt the Pirates were undervalued by bookmakers in various spots this season. But that support is starting to wane, as more times than not, Pittsburgh finds a way to come up short.
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Offensively, the Pirates are reeling, and over the past 14 days, they’re dead last in the majors with a wRC+ value of 60. Their pitching has managed to hold up, considering it ranks 16th with a 4.19 ERA during the same period. The bullpen has been a disaster, though, ranking second to last in ERA behind only the woeful Reds.
Pirates manager Derek Shelton pulls Zach Thompson from a game. Getty ImagesThe Phillies should be able to succeed against Thompson, who gave up seven runs in his last outing against Florida. Thompson has failed to go more than 5 1/3 innings in nine of his past 10 starts, so the shaky Pirates bullpen could come into play here as well.
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Based on my model projections, I’d look to back the Phillies on the moneyline in this matchup. Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 or his last 12 starts. Look for him to be on point again Thursday.
Philadephia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates pick
Phillies -200 — BetMGM
