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After a half-decent start to the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates have come crashing down to earth over the past two weeks. Losers of nine in a row, the Bucs now find themselves at 24-37, and their -103 run differential is the worst mark in the Major Leagues.
Even if Pittsburgh’s season is heading nowhere fast, there have been some bright spots for the Bucs through their first 61 games, and perhaps none brighter than what they’ve seen out of 22-year-old right-hander Roansy Contreras.
Although he’s only hurled 28 innings this season (and 31 in his MLB career), Contreras looks to be heading in the right direction. The former Yankee prospect has posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.30 xFIP, and is striking out 10.6 batters per 9 innings.
Pirates vs. Cardinals odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: PIT +.1.5 (-135) vs. STL -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: PIT (+145) vs. STL (-175)
Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Paul Goldschmidt Getty ImagesPirates vs. Cardinals prediction
Pittsburgh may not win many more games the rest of this season, but if Contreras continues this kind of form, he will give the Bucs chances against any lineup. And even though they are underdogs against the first-place St. Louis Cardinals, this should be a decent opportunity for the Pirates to get off the schneid.
Jack Flaherty will make his season debut for the Cardinals after missing the first two months of the season with a shoulder injury. Not too long ago, Flaherty looked like he was a sure thing to assume the ace role for the Cards, but things have gone off the rails a little bit for the 26-year-old since the shortened season in 2020.
Over his last 118.2 innings, Flaherty has pitched to a 3.79 ERA and 3.78 xFIP, which are decent numbers but they’re not what everyone was expecting out of Flaherty as he hit his prime. Additionally, Flaherty has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.37 home runs per nine innings over his last two injury-riddled seasons.
In short, we don’t know what to expect out of Flaherty in his first MLB start of the season. In all likelihood, Flaherty will start to resemble his former self if he stays healthy, but it’ll take some time to get there.
And against a live arm like Contreras, Flaherty’s margin for error will be relatively thin, which isn’t what you want for a pitcher who is trying to find his rhythm after eight months on the shelf.
The Pirates don’t really inspire much confidence, but this starting pitching matchup should give them the opportunity to pull the upset. But instead of taking the chance that Pittsburgh’s bullpen capitulates and tanks Contreras, look to the First 5 Inning moneyline and hope that Contreras can get the better of Flaherty in his season debut.
MLB picks today
Pirates F5 ML (+145) — BetMGM Sportsbook
