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After looking at the MLB slate for Thursday, one game that caught my eye was Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. Though the Pirates have been inconsistent, I like their chances in the series opener against Reds’ left-hander Mike Minor.
In six starts, Minor is 1-5 with a 6.82 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. His 7.34 FIP suggests he could experience even further regression.
Minor’s 3.13 HR/9 ratio is a notable concern. His strikeout ratio is also a career-low, with 6.82 punchouts per nine innings.
The reality is that Minor isn’t missing too many bats at this stage in his career, given his Called Plus Swinging Strike Rate, which is down to 24.8 percent. And when he does pitch inside the strike zone, opposing hitters are making contact at an alarming rate of 93.6 percent.
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As a result, I’d recommend isolating Minor and the Reds on the moneyline in the first five innings, in which he’s 0-4-2 this season.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction
Pirates first five Innings, moneyline (-105) BetMGM.
