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Providence continues to get “lucky,” running its way to the Sweet 16 despite recording a ShotQuality loss in both tournament games so far.
But Kansas will be a different kind of challenge. The Jayhawks are filled with blue-chip talent, particularly on offense, and are on a seven-game winning streak.
The Jayhawks didn’t look invincible against Creighton, leading by just one point with just over a minute left before pulling away.
So, can the Friars continue this “impossible” run and take advantage of the Jayhawks’ potential vulnerabilities?
I’m not sure, but I think this spread is just a tad high.
Our Action PRO Projections make Providence just a 5.5-point ’dog, and the Friars have already taken sharp money, pushing the line down from eight.
Providence will have to play in the half-court and avoid letting Kansas out in transition. But I trust Ed Cooley’s game plan here, as he’s one of the best coaches to back when catching points.
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In his career, Cooley is 135-103-2 (56.7 percent) against the spread as an underdog. Shorten that to since 2014 — the first year he took his Friars to the NCAA Tournament — and Cooley is 71-47-1 (60.2 percent) ATS as an underdog, good for a 16.3 percent ROI.
So, expect Cooley and the gritty Providence shot-makers to hang around within a few possessions in the Sweet 16. It’ll be hard for Providence to advance in this spot, but we know how the Friars perform in close games.
Anything is possible in March.
The play: Providence +7.5
