No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Old Dominion – Thursday, March 21 at 9:50 p.m., TBS (Hartford, CT)
Old Dominion comes into its first-round March Madness showdown against Purdue having already won a true road game this season against Syracuse, and has the type of defense that can stifle a one-dimensional Purdue bunch.
Carsen Edwards attempts the most field goals of any player in the NCAA Tournament with more than 19.1 per game, and while he pours in 23 points per game, he shoots just 33.5 percent from 3-point range and 38.6 percent from the floor overall.
Old Dominion ranks ninth in the country in defensive efficiency, with Michigan the only Big Ten team to rank higher in that category. The Monarchs also are stout inside, ranking seventh in opponents’ shooting percentage on 2-point shots, which will cause Purdue to try to beat them from the outside.
Old Dominion has not allowed a team to score 65 or more points in a game since Feb. 2, and Purdue has allowed 72 or more points in four of its past six games. Though offensive firepower is not a forte of the Monarchs, as this is the worst 2-point shooting offense in the field, they have three players who shoot at least 37 percent from 3-point range and all attempt at least three 3s per game.
Purdue ranks 189th in the country in 3-point shooting defense and allowed opponents to take more free throws than they attempted themselves this season. With Old Dominion being successful in slowing down games through the season, it should be able to pick its spots and keep this game close throughout with perhaps a chance to pull off the upset.
PREDICTION: Old Dominion covers the spread at +12½.
Greg Peterson handicaps college basketball in VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly. Sign up for a one-week free trial at VSiN.com/free.
