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A tight NFC West tug-of-war is taking centerstage on “Thursday Night Football” as the 49ers jump in against the Rams as three-point favorites.

San Francisco is coming off a dominant victory over the struggling Bears while the Rams eked out a thrilling win against AFC contending Bills.

It’s two totally different weeks for both teams, as the Rams’ defense looked horrific in the second half against the Bills but still came away with the win thanks to a third-and-15 Puka Nacua screen pass for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to help close out the game.

Still, the Rams had to be bailed out by Bills coach Sean McDermott’s dubious late-game management in the 44-42 victory.

The 49ers are favored here despite many injuries on both sides of the ball as their defense stifled rookie quarterback Caleb Williams while outgaining Chicago 319-4 in the first half.

They’ll have a tougher task in a potential primetime shootout spot this week, as the Rams’ offense is rated No. 7 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) as they face the No. 8 DVOA offense.

Running backs are dropping like flies at a bizarre rate for the 49ers as they are down to their third-string running back, Issac Guerendo, and even he is banged up.

Guerendo is playing on a short week after injuring his ankle and not practicing in the lead-up to the game, normally this would be a spot to target, considering the Ram’s run defense is poor and the 49ers rushing offense behind coach Shanhan’s zone-blocking scheme is among the best in the league.

However, it’s impossible to trust Guerendo’s workload and backup. Patrick Taylor is arguably just as good if not better.

We’ll unfortunately pass on any rushing props in this one but still expect the 49ers to have their way on that side of the ball.

The Rams allow the sixth most yards per carry in the NFL (4.7 YPC allowed), while the 49ers also coincidentally have accrued the sixth most yards per carry in the NFL (4.6 YPC).

Both teams are solid, and this matchup is about as even as you could possibly have, given the 49ers’ injuries to Trent Williams while potentially missing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.

For the betting trend lovers, Kyle Shanahan is 10-5 head-to-head against Sean McVay, although the Rams won their lone playoff matchup.

As for this game, Los Angeles’ run defense is simply not good enough to back against the 49ers, even with a third-string running back taking carries.

The Rams’ run defense is rated No. 22 according to DVOA, and I expect someone, whether it be Taylor or Guerendo, to have his way on “Thursday Night Football.”

Back the 49ers to win on Thursday night, and don’t be afraid to throw a live bet out there on a running back’s overs, depending on who the hot hand is.

PICK: 49ers -3 (+100, Fanatics) | Live bet 49ers running back overs (rushing yards, attempts)

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.