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Brandon Anderson covers all things NBA and NFL for Action Network, specializing in NBA props and ATS picks for every NFL game.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) over Cincinnati Bengals
These may be the last two NFL teams standing, but that does not mean these are the best two NFL teams (or anywhere close to equal). The Rams are the significantly better team, and we have myriad metrics to tell us that. They were the only NFL team to finish the season ranked inside the top eight of Football Outsiders’ offensive, defensive and special teams. The Rams are a well-rounded team that’s better in all three facets of the game than the Bengals, who ranked near average in all three metrics and overall.
The Bengals are the worst team the Rams will have played in a month. Bengals believers will scream that the young team has gotten much better late in the season and during this postseason run, throwing out those metrics in the process, but I’m not sure that’s fair. Just look at their playoff games: The Bengals have been outgained in each, eking out one-score victories thanks to game-sealing interceptions of opposing quarterbacks in the final minute of all three matchups, plus a 12-for-12 postseason record from a rookie kicker.
Contrast that luck with the Rams, who have looked convincingly better than three excellent opponents — all of whom rate much better than the forgettable Titans and Raiders squads the Bengals struggled against. Unlike the Bengals, the Rams outgained all three of their playoff opponents, including twice by more than 100 yards.
The Rams held a 28-0 lead over the Cardinals and 27-3 over the Buccaneers. And if you watched the 49ers game, you know the Rams were the much better team throughout that one, too.
Matthew Stafford Getty ImagesCredit to the Bengals for always doing just enough to get by, but that doesn’t mean I have to bet on them to do it again. I don’t believe in destiny. I believe in the better team.
In this season’s playoffs, and for most of Super Bowl history, the team that wins also covers. And I like the Rams to win, so I’ll take them to cover, too.
Championship week: 2-0. Bengals (W), 49ers (W).
