For the sixth time this season the New York Rangers will have their backs against the wall in an elimination game. The Blueshirts admirably fought back against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes in Rounds 1 and 2, but it will be a different task to repeat the feat against Andrei Vasilevskiy and the two-time defending champions — especially if Brayden Point draws back into the lineup. 

After a bit of an uncharacteristic Game 1 that saw the Rangers win, 6-2, this series has settled into what most folks thought it would look like. There’s very little room on the ice and both goaltenders are playing at an elite level. 

The under has hit in every game since the series opener. It also cashed in all four games of Tampa’s Round 2 sweep of the Panthers and in five of the seven tilts in Rangers-Hurricanes. In other words, the Under is 13-3 in the last 16 contests featuring either, or both, of these teams.

That trend, combined with the defensive style both teams are playing and the fact that Igor Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy are in great form means we will see a very inflated price on the under for Game 6. It may seem like the simple thing to do would be to just go back to the well — and that may work out — but you’re going to be paying quite the premium at this point. 

And there are some reasons to believe that Game 6 could be more open than what we’ve seen over the past four contests. For one, this is a do-or-die moment for the Rangers and one thing that’s become clear in this postseason is that the Blueshirts perform better when games go off-script. It behooves New York to invite chaos on Saturday night and that should allow the game to breathe a bit more.

On the other side of the ice, there are some signals that Tampa’s offense is starting to round into form. The Bolts have created 67 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 in this series. After failing to convert on 39 of their first 40 HDCF, Tampa has started to find the back of the net when given the opportunity. 

Even in these tight games, the Lightning are generating plenty of scoring chances at 5-on-5. And while that hasn’t necessarily been true of the Rangers since Game 1, an elimination game means they will have to take more chances, especially if the Bolts get out to a lead. 

The way this series has played out may point to another low-scoring game, but things get funky when a team is in desperation mode. You’re going to get a great number on Game 6 going over the total, take it.

The Bet: Over 5 (-130)