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There were likely some raised eyebrows when the series odds for New York Rangers versus Pittsburgh Penguins were released. 

Given the way these two teams entered the playoffs, the edge the Rangers have in goal, the way the season series shook out, and the fact that the Blueshirts have home-ice advantage, most folks assumed that New York would be favored in this series. However, the Pens opened as -120 favorites before money came in on the Rangers to push them to -115. 

While the Rangers do have the edge in goal with Igor Shesterkin, the Pens were the stronger five-on-five team in the regular season. New York finished 20th in the NHL in goals scored at 5-on-5 and only had a +10 goal differential but Pittsburgh finished 12th and boasted a +27 goal differential. The Penguins also have the ninth-best expected goals rate at 5-on-5 since New Year’s Day, while the Rangers rank 20th over that span.Betting against Shesterkin is never fun, but Casey DeSmith has been in strong enough form with a .927 save percentage and +5.37 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) since Feb. 1. Plus, with Pittsburgh’s edge at 5-on-5, they’ll be asking DeSmith to just keep them in games, rather than win them on his own. 

In a matchup that projects to be a coin flip, the plus-money on the Penguins in Game 1 is appealing. 

The play: Penguins +105.