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Our MLB betting expert is here to offer up his best Reds vs. Cubs Field of Dreams game 2022 predictions and picks ahead of one of the most entertaining games on the MLB schedule. Starting at 7:15 p.m. ET in Dyersville, Iowa, the game will be broadcasted on FOX.

For the second season in a row, all eyes of the baseball world will turn to Iowa for a game at the Field of Dreams in Dyersville. But unlike last year’s stop in the cornfield, which featured the Yankees and White Sox, Thursday’s game features two teams that are well outside the playoff picture: The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs.

The Reds are slight -115 favorites over the Cubs, and the total currently sits at 9 with the over juiced to -115.

Nick Lodolo, a 24-year-old rookie, will get the nod for the Reds and should be considered the stronger starting pitcher in a matchup with journeyman Drew Smyly, even if the latter has the better surface-level stats this season. Lodolo’s 4.40 ERA through his first nine starts (43 innings) may look pedestrian, but his xFIP sits at 3.72, and he’s shown a penchant for racking up strikeouts with a 12.14 K/9 on the season.

Editors note: FanDuel Sportsbook is running a Field of Dreams Game promotion for all users. Any 3+ leg SGP parlay of $25 or more (+400 min. odds) is rewarded with an additional $5 in free bets for every home run hit in the game, whether your bet wins or loses.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: CHI:-1.5 (+150) vs. CIN +1.5 (-185)

Moneyline: CHI (-105) vs. CIN (-115)

Total: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)

Like plenty of young pitchers, Lodolo could stand to improve his walk-rate. He ranks in the 23rd percentile in BB%, but the rest of his peripheral metrics are strong considering where he’s at in his career. Lodolo ranks in the 65th percentile in average exit velocity, 66th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 54th percentile in hard hit rate. Nothing outstanding, but impressive nonetheless.

Despite having decent batted ball data, Lodolo has still allowed a .383 BABIP (league average .289), which suggests he’s been a bit unlucky in his debut season.

As for Smyly, he’s basically been the pitcher we all expected in 2022. The 33-year-old southpaw owns a 3.97 ERA and 4.26 xFIP in 65.2 innings of work for the Cubs this season. Smyly doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but his walk rate is superb and he ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity.

Neither Lodolo nor Smyly will be going up against a robust lineup, but Chicago has been the superior offensive team this season. The Cubs rank 19th in wRC+ (97), while Cincinnati ranks 27th (88) — and that number is inflated because of now-traded players Brandon Drury, Tyler Naquin, and Tommy Pham.

Even with the Cubs having the better offense, it’s not like Chicago is a good bet to light it up, especially if Lodolo is on song. 

In the end, this is a game being played in unusual circumstances between two bad teams. Rather than read into too much into trying to decipher how these offenses will perform in a one-game sample, bettors may be better off backing the high-ceiling of Lodolo against a pitcher who is unlikely to dominate any lineups.

The Bet: Cincinnati Reds -115 (BetMGM)