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After splitting a four-game set with the Boston Red Sox over the weekend, the New York Yankees now head home for a three-game series with the last-place Cincinnati Reds before they close out their historic first-half with another series with the Red Sox. 

Tuesday night’s tilt certainly sets up well for the Yankees with Gerrit Cole (8-2, 3.26 ERA) set to take on rookie Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.35 ERA). Considering the pitching matchup, it’s no surprise that bookmakers have installed the Yankees as -330 favorites for the series opener. Should the Bombers close at -330, it would be the second-highest moneyline they’ve had all season (New York went off at -345 against Oakland on June 28, per Action Labs).

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: CIN +2.5 (-125) vs. NYY -2.5 (+105)

Moneyline: CIN (+230) vs. NYY (-300)

Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

At first glance, everything in this matchup points to a Yankees win. Despite struggling in his last start, Cole has been as advertised for the Pinstripes this season with a 3.26 ERA, 2.95 xFIP and 11.23 K/9. And while Cole ranks in the 75th percentile in xwOBA and 90th percentile in strikeout rate, his batted ball data does have some minor red flags.

Cole’s 9.1% barrel rate and 36.5% hard hit rate are both below average compared to the rest of the league. Of course, you’ll trade the odd barrel for Cole’s ability to overpower lineups, but he has been vulnerable to the long ball this season.

On paper, a pitching matchup between Cole and Ashcraft looks like a mismatch, but there are reasons to believe that the rookie can at least keep pace with the Yankee ace. While Ashcraft’s 13.4% strikeout rate pales in comparison to Cole’s, he’s proven to be an effective contact pitcher with a 53.4% groundball rate and an average exit velocity of 85.9 MPH, which ranks in the top six percent of pitchers this season.

In addition to his ability to induce weak contact, Ashcraft rarely pitches himself into trouble with walks. So far the UAB product has walked just 4.1% of batters he’s faced, which puts him in the 96th percentile league-wide.

The Yankees lineup will punish you for making mistakes, but Ashcraft profiles as the type of pitcher who should limit the damage and there’s a chance he keeps this powerful offense to a reasonable total.

Betting against the Yankees has not been a profitable strategy this season, but once again we’re seeing an inflated moneyline for a matchup that shouldn’t be as straight-forward as the oddsmakers suggest (-330 odds equate to a 76.8% implied win probability). Ashcraft has proven to be a tricky opponent for lineups this season and there’s enough to his arsenal to make him a live underdog, even against the best offense in baseball and Gerrit Cole. 

Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model projects the Reds as a +221 underdog for Tuesday night’s encounter with the Yankees, so there’s plenty of value on Cincinnati if you’ve got the stomach for it.

Reds +230 (BetMGM)