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Considering it was bookended by two series with the Boston Red Sox, you could have been forgiven for overlooking the New York Yankees’ three-game series with the last-place Cincinnati Reds. But as it turns out, the first two games between the Reds and Yanks have been filled with drama. 

After Cincinnati became the first team to come back from a ninth-inning deficit (a four-run deficit, no less) to beat the Yankees this season on Tuesday night, the Yanks returned the favor with a come-from-behind win in a thriller on Wednesday night. 

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: CIN +1.5 (-135) vs. NYY -1.5 (+110)

Moneyline: CIN (+155) vs. NYY (-190)

Total: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

New York and Cincinnati will close out the series on Thursday night, and even though the Yankees are once again a robust favorite at -195, this is the first time in this series that they’re going to close under -300. 

Thursday’s pitching matchup — which features Nestor Cortes going up against Luis Castillo — is interesting for a number of reasons. For one, both pitchers have a sub-3.00 ERA and are striking out better than a batter per inning. But there’s also the added intrigue that Castillo has been linked to the Yankees as a possible trade chip with the deadline fast approaching. 

Pitching for a bad Reds team, Castillo has been nothing short of terrific through 12 starts this season. The 29-year-old owns a 2.92 ERA, 3.37 xERA, 3.32 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP through 71 innings of work. Castillo is striking out 9.4 batters per 9 innings and sports a groundball rate just under 50%. According to StatCast, Castillo ranks in the 70th percentile in xwOBA and 72nd percentile in xSLG%. 

After a blistering start to the campaign, Nestor Cortes has come back down to earth over his last six starts. Once among the favorites for the Cy Young, Cortes has now drifted to +2000, which is still incredible considering where he was to start the season. And even though Cortes’ overall numbers still sparkle, he’s pitched to a 5.34 ERA and 4.82 xFIP over his last 28.2 innings.

The Reds offense may provide a decent get-right spot for Cortes, but Cincinnati has put up adequate numbers against southpaws this season. Overall, Cincinnati ranks near the bottom of the league with a .304 wOBA and 89 wRC+, but those numbers tick up to .317 and 98 against left-handed pitchers.

Given how taxed these bullpens have been over the past two games, it does make some sense to just take them out of the equation and instead hone in on the opportunities presented by the starting pitching matchup. 

Overall, there isn’t much separating Castillo and Cortes this season, but in terms of recent form it’s clear that one pitcher is trending up, while the other is going in the opposite direction. Castillo has been at the top of his game of late — he’s racked up a 0.90 ERA and 2.25 xFIP over his last three outings — and is worth backing against Cortes in this spot. 

Reds F5 Moneyline (+146) — BetMGM