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The New York Yankees will try to bounce back after getting swept in the Subway Series against the crosstown Mets.

Next up for the Bronx Bombers is a seven-game homestand beginning with a four-game series against the Royals. Jameson Taillon will get the start for New York, while Kansas City will counter with Brady Singer.

The Yankees are once again a heavy favorite, but perhaps that’s par for the course given their head-to-head numbers against Singer.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: KCR (+185) vs. NYY (-165)

Spread: KCR +1.5 (-105) vs. NYY -1.5 (-115)

Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Brady Singer (3.82) vs. Jameson Taillon (3.93)

Through 19 starts, Taillon is 10-2 with a 3.93 ERA. As for Singer, he’s 4-3 in his 15 starts and carries a 3.82 ERA. Yet, while Taillon boasts more wins, Singer’s advanced metrics are impressive, considering his 3.30 xFIP and 3.76 xERA.

Nonetheless, Taillon isn’t too far behind as he has a 3.83 xFIP with a 4.04 xERA. Taillon has hit a minor bump as he’s allowed 14 earned runs in his last 19 innings. In comparison, Singer allowed five earned runs during that same stretch.

Both of Singer’s starts against the Yankees occurred last season, but on each occasion, he failed to get out of the fourth inning. Overall, in 47 plate appearances, this current Yankee lineup is batting .378 against Singer with a .466 wOBA.

As for the Royals, their lineup has 40 plate appearances against Taillon and is hitting just .184 with a .188 wOBA. 

It’s hard to have much confidence in this Royals team coming off back-to-back shutout losses against an Angels team that was just 2-12 heading into the All-Star break.

And with the recent struggles of Kansas City’s offense, I’ve yet to see any recent signs that they’re starting to turn the corner. Moreover, I don’t expect things will get any easier against Taillon, given his success against their lineup.

While Taillon’s recent form does concern me, I think the Yankees will be a bit more optimistic to face a pitcher other than Max Scherzer. The Mets right-hander scattered five hits in seven shutout innings on Wednesday against the Yankees.

However, once the Mets went to their bullpen, the Yankees promptly scored two runs in the eighth inning to tie the game before suffering a walk-off loss in the ninth inning.

That brief comeback could provide the momentum the Yankees need heading into Thursday’s game. In contrast, the Royals don’t have much of a silver lining to cling to following the two shutouts against the Angels.

Although I give the Yankees a significant edge in this matchup, laying two-to-one is rarely a winning strategy in my book. As a result, I’d look to play the Yankees on the first five (-0.5) runline where the odds are a bit more manageable.

Taillon has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in this spot, and according to our Action Labs database, he’s 12-7 for a profit of 5.49 units.

Moreover, the Yankees are on a 4-0 run in this spot when on a two-game losing streak.

If Taillon can continue his success against the Royals’ lineup, I think the Yankees’ bats will get going and jump out to an early lead.

Yankees F5 RL -0.5 / -140 (BetMGM)