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Overcorrection or sharp money?

On Tuesday, Julio Jones agreed to join Tom Brady and a host of talented wide receivers for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At that moment, bettors began putting down substantial bets on Russell Gage under props at Caesars Sportsbook.

At the time, Gage’s receiving yards prop was 750.5 and quickly plummeted down to 575.5. Moreover, his receiving touchdowns went from 4.5 down to 3.5. By the end of the day, Gage’s projected receiving yard total had dropped 23.3 percent. But is that too much of a correction?

Bettors obviously believed they are betting with an edge, as theoretically, Gage’s path to consistent playing time has gone by the wayside. With Jones part of a trifecta of solid receivers behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, it is very fair to expect Gage to play less with Jones on the field.

Let’s also not forget that Godwin tore his ACL late last season. While he will not start the year on the physically unable to perform list, expecting him to return for the start of the season is asking for a lot just nine months removed from major knee surgery in January.

With his status uncertain, it would be reasonable to equate the addition of Jones as a sign that Godwin will not be ready to start the season. Leaving the more durable, consistent receiver Gage as the slot receiver for Brady to start the year.

Being a starting receiver is quite valuable space as the Buccaneers’ offense has been one of the best in the NFL in recent seasons, ranking second in total points scored last year and third in 2020. Furthermore, Jones has only scored four touchdowns in his last two seasons.

In total, he has started in 19 of a possible 33 games. In 10 games with the Titans, Jones averaged 43.4 receiving yards per game and only scored one touchdown.

Whether he has cratered physically or not is unknown, and it’s possible Brady brings him significantly more red zone opportunities than Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan. However, Jones is far from a yardage hog at this point in his career.

Gage is a reliable receiver who is consistently healthy, as he has played in 61 of a possible 65 games in his career. Couple that with Jones’ injury issues and subpar performances over the past two years, and it is very reasonable to expect Gage to play a significant role in this offense still.

Gage should go over his current receiving total despite this Julio Jones signing. Brady has shown a willingness to get fourth receivers involved in the past; Scotty Miller totaled 501 receiving yards in 16 games in 2020.

Gage has an extra game in a high-flying offense to get over 575.5 receiving yards this season.