Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his fourth season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.

Tom Brady keeps rolling along, and the public loves to bet him (with good reason). But here’s the biggest example of an inflated line this week. It’s as if oddsmakers and the betting public forget that the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 36-27, on Halloween and have, in fact, gone 3-1 SU and ATS against Brady since he moved to Tampa (though the loss was in the playoffs). We also saw the return of Alvin Kamara last week and how much he jump-started the Saints’ offense, even helping open things up for Taysom Hill. And despite the Bucs’ 10-3 SU record, they’re just 7-6 ATS this season, so they often let teams stick around (even at lower numbers than this).

The Lions let us down in their 38-10 loss at the Broncos, though they had an excuse as they were short-handed due to COVID-19 issues. We’re not making alibis for that losing bet, as we stayed with it even after hearing about the players being out. But that’s OK, as the Lions have been very good to us this season as they’ve been consistently more competitive than the other dregs of the league despite their league-worst 1-12-1 record — they’re still 8-5 ATS. The Cardinals should bounce back from their Monday night loss to the Rams, but this line is still too high. And, yes, we’re aware that the Cardinals are 7-0 SU and ATS on the road this season, but I’ll take the Lions (4-2 ATS at home) with the generous points.

Last week: 0-2. Lions (L), Washington (L)
Season: 16-12