Fresh off a tourney where the winning total was single-digits under-par in cold, rainy weather, we should be back to a proverbial birdie-fest for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson in hot, breezy conditions at TPC Craig Ranch. This tournament has yielded a 25-under winning tally in its initial hosting role last year, along with five other scores of at least 21-under and 25 at 15-under or better.

Unlike the past two events, this one will have more star power before the year’s second major. Seven of the world’s top-13 players will be in attendance, including Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama.

Let’s start with an outright play in a range where I believe there’s some serious value.

I originally had Erik Van Rooyen as my favorite outright play. I liked everything about him — from the fact that he was trending in the right direction to his propensity for making birdies.

There was just one little issue: Not long after the piece was published, he withdrew. I’ll own that as a #JINX if you want me to, but really, EVR simply represented a sweet spot on the board where I wanted to throw a few darts.

Instead, I’ll pivot to Munoz, who is getting very close to Colombian Charles Howell III territory here — and as I’ve written in the past, that’s not an insult at all. In his last seven starts, Munoz has finished between 21st and 39th every single time, cashing some solid paychecks without ever once seriously contending for a title.

If the CH3 comparison doesn’t do this justice, he’s basically in a group with the likes of Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy and Brian Harman as guys who continue to grind out solid performances without much to show for it in the way of points or money or big-time results. Even so, I still think good things are on the horizon for all of the players I’ve mentioned here.

I’ll admit that Munoz might hold more value for prop plays where he can pay off that high floor, but I don’t mind taking a chance on his inevitable ceiling here. And just think: All of that Van Rooyen money we’ve saved from the WD can go toward a few other players in this range.

This remains one of my favorite current statistics, because it says a lot about us and how we look at these things and how we can shape them to fit our personal narratives: Since his most recent global victory last February, Johnson doesn’t own a single top-five finish in a stroke-play event. (He did reach the semifinals of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, resulting in a solo fourth-place result.) Then again, in 25 stroke-play starts since that win, he does own eight top-10s and 13 top-25s.

What that tells us is that DJ hasn’t seriously contended on the back nine of a Sunday afternoon, but he’s hardly playing poor golf, finishing in that top-25 range in half of his appearances.

With all of that in mind, I’ll back Johnson to break one of those streaks, finally posting a top-five finish this week. While it’s not very relevant, as he hasn’t played this tourney in a half-decade and hasn’t competed on this course, Johnson does own seven consecutive top-20s at this one, though only one top-five, way back in 2009.

Let’s say you play Powerball every week. Instead of using the computer-generated numbers, though, you like picking your own, having some control over the result by choosing your lucky numbers each time. And let’s say that after a few months of playing Powerball, you still haven’t hit for some $183 million jackpot.

What do you do now? Well, one option, of course, is to just stop playing. If you’re going to continue, however, you might as well keep playing your lucky numbers. After all, think of the regret you’d have if you didn’t play ’em and they suddenly hit one day.

This is essentially how I feel about Wise right now. I’ve played him enough over the past few months that I’ll feel some serious remorse if he wins and I’m not on him in some respect.

With three finishes of 21st-or-better in his last five starts, he’s trending in the right direction and could pull a Max Homa this week, winning the same event for a second time, but on a completely different golf course.