Handicappers and bettors have a great opportunity Saturday to study two major college basketball conferences head-to-head in a midseason preview of March Madness.
It’s the SEC versus the Big 12 running day and night on the ESPN family of networks. Both of those conferences are likely to get seven or eight teams apiece into the NCAA Tournament, pending what happens down the stretch. There will certainly be a Big Dance feel to these three matchups in particular …
No. 9 Kansas at No. 8 Kentucky (ESPN, 6 p.m.): While it’s true both perennial powers have largely been missing from national championship discussions to this point in the season, it’s still a battle of teams currently slated as No. 2 seeds in Joe Lunardi’s “Bracketology.” As we discussed this past Tuesday, Kentucky has been surging into great form.
No. 24 Iowa State at No. 20 Mississippi (ESPN, noon): The Rebels have been the strongest point-spread team in the nation (15-3 against the spread, off a 14-1 ATS start). Iowa State is better respected in the computers than the polls. Both Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) and Jeff Sagarin (USA Today) have the Cyclones in the top 18, while Ole Miss has been in the 40-45 range recently. Great test for both at this site.
Alabama at Baylor (ESPNU, noon): A “bubble” battle between unranked teams that have no margin for error. Lunardi has had the Crimson Tide and Bears in the “first four out” category. The computers agree it’s touch and go for both. Expect peak intensity.
Unfortunately, disappointing seasons for a few teams have spiked some of the other matchups. There’s no buzz now around West Virginia at No. 1 Tennessee, with the Mountaineers at the bottom of the Big 12 standings. Kansas State at Texas A&M isn’t what it could have been after the Aggies’ recent 1-6 stretch.
You probably know the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the SEC has 14 teams. Amazingly, three of the four SEC “extras” are ranked! It’s worth checking out No. 16 Auburn at No. 22 Mississippi State (SEC Network, 8:30 p.m.). Also Saturday, No. 25 LSU visits Missouri (SEC Network, 6 p.m.).
Saturday’s full slate will allow the numbers-minded to align their Power Ratings for these two conferences. Remember to allot three points for home-court advantage. Settled point spreads (after sharps have “sharpened” oddsmaker openers) will tell you the perceived neutral-court point difference between Kansas and Kentucky, whether or not Ole Miss is a true dark horse or a pretender, and whether there are potential sleepers among the unranked.
If you prefer “matchup” analysis for team skill sets, these games will let you see units forced to perform out of their comfort zones under a TV spotlight. Teams that maintain their composure on offense and get stops on defense likely will carry that ability into conference tournaments and the NCAA Tournament (or the NIT). Those that fall apart will be tough to back when the pressure is even more intense in March.
