It has become popular in major media circles to blast college football’s Southeastern Conference as “overrated” because it gets so much TV exposure. It would be much easier to make that case if the SEC wasn’t so good at covering point spreads.
Point spreads are about as pure a reflection of how a team is “rated” as you’re going to get. They represent the sum total of informed perceptions backed by real money. If a 10-point favorite wins by just a field goal, they were overrated in that game. If a 10-point favorite wins by 21, they were underrated. Point spreads provide a quick snapshot of how teams are rated at any given moment.
To evaluate conferences, you simply can add up the combined point-spread performance of all the teams. Of course every league game splits out because one team has to cover while its opponent has to fail (unless the final scoring margin lands right on the number for a push). Just focus on what happens in non-conference games. An “overrated” conference should have a losing record against the spread when facing other leagues. An “underrated” conference would have a winning record.
Last season, the SEC went 39-28-1 against outsiders counting bowls and playoffs, 58 percent against the spread. Despite criticism about saturation, the SEC was underrated last season.
Yes, Alabama failed to win the national championship, going 0-2 against the spread in the playoffs. Georgia virtually no-showed the Sugar Bowl in a loss to Texas. But, Auburn pounded Purdue 63-14, Texas A&M trounced North Carolina State 52-13. Do that for every interconference game all season, and the SEC got the best of it.
Here are last season’s non-league ATS records by division:
- SEC East: Florida 5-0, Missouri 3-2, Vanderbilt 3-2, South Carolina 3-2, Georgia 2-3, Kentucky 2-3, Tennessee 1-3 (19-15 combined).
- SEC West: Texas A&M 5-0, Mississippi State 4-1, Mississippi 3-1, Auburn 3-2, LSU 2-3, Arkansas 1-2-1, Alabama 2-4 (20-13-1 combined).
Once again, reality had an SEC bias. Heavy television exposure is a reflection of quality. And, even with all elements of the betting market having ample opportunity to evaluate the league, the SEC was still underrated by pricing.
As we reported last September, the SEC made a statement in Week 1 “challenge” games that were priced within a field goal.
Skeptics who didn’t want to give the league credit for running up the score against small-college cupcakes had no defense for: LSU (+3) beating Miami 33-17 (19-point cover), Ole Miss (-2¹/₂) beating Texas Tech 47-27 (22¹/₂-point cover), Vanderbilt (-3) beating Middle Tennessee 35-7 (25-point cover), and Auburn (-1¹/₂ ) beating Washington 21-16.
Unfortunately, there aren’t as many projected nail biters early in 2019. We encourage you to start an early 2019 report card with Saturday’s Ole Miss-Memphis (ABC, noon), and Auburn-Oregon (ABC, 7:30 p.m.) attractions. All of those have single-digit point spreads.
Next week, matchups such as LSU at Texas, Tennessee vs. BYU and Texas A&M at Clemson should provide further insight into how the SEC stands nationally.
