Hockey’s Stanley Cup Final could come to an end Sunday (NBC, 8 p.m.) when the St. Louis Blues play host to the Boston Bruins.
Pre-series underdog St. Louis is one win away from a championship. One of their avid fans is one win away from pocketing $100,000.
If you’ve been following sports betting media in recent days, you know all about Scott Berry. During the nadir of the Blues’ regular season, he placed a $400 bet at 250/1 odds just as his favorite team was about to get healthy and get moving. It did. St. Louis closed the regular season on a 24-6-4 run before winning the Western Conference playoffs.
Berry’s Blues carry a 3-2 series lead over the Bruins into Game 6. They’re now clear favorites to take the series with two chances to win once. Though, St. Louis would flip back to an underdog of about +150 if Boston breaks serve. Note that many sports books globally will take a bath if the Blues win the series. Berry was one of many bettors to recognize jackpot value as the team took off.
Before and throughout the series, there was a lot of chatter about whether Berry should “hedge” his bet to lock in a profit. Much less about smart hedging strategies. Let’s make up for that now by reviewing what sharps consider to be the best strategies for hedging:
- Don’t do it! Many sharps say you should always focus on placing smart bets within the confines of your bankroll. Once you’ve done that, let results take care of themselves. Any “hedge” bet probably won’t have a positive expectation given standard vigorish. To these sharps, the only time you would hedge is if it involves life-changing money (there’s nothing wrong with grabbing life-changing money).
- Lock in the midpoint so there’s no sweat. Here, a $60K bet on Boston to win $40K before the series began would have split the difference. A St. Louis victory would have paid $40K ($100K won on St. Louis minus $60K lost on Boston), while a Boston victory would have paid $39,600 ($40K won on Boston minus the original $400 bet).
- Don’t split the difference, but hedge in a way that still wins big with your favorite team, while returning a substantial sum if your preferred side loses. A $30K bet on Boston to win $20K pre-series would have yielded $70K for a St. Louis celebration, $19,600 for a Bruins championship.
Now, Berry is sitting even prettier, favored to cash his big ticket. He already has made it clear he has no interest in hedging. But, if Berry wanted to, he’d be able to place series bets right now on Boston at underdog prices.
Best of luck to all of you betting hockey. VSiN hopes you’ll have a chance one day to win life-changing money with smart bets.
