Are the Kentucky Wildcats about to become a major story on the road to March Madness?
That’s usually a given. And, in some seasons, pundits are pondering a particular unit’s place in history. We’ve seen that with Duke in recent months. Ironically, that started after a season-opening 118-84 annihilation of then No. 2 Kentucky.
The Wildcats fell off the championship map with that embarrassment, and a later failure on Dec. 8 against Seton Hall at Madison Square Garden.
Since then, Kentucky is 7-1 straight up (the sole setback coming by a bucket on the road at Alabama), and 5-3 against the spread. Within that run: Kentucky (+2 ¹/₂) upset North Carolina 80-72 on a neutral court in Chicago, and Kentucky (+5) upset Auburn 80-78 on the road. You regulars know home-court advantage is worth about three points in the college basketball betting marketplace. The market saw Auburn as the superior team entering Saturday’s stunner.
Tuesday, Kentucky hosts ranked Mississippi State in another nationally televised test (ESPN, 7 p.m.).
There were a few key indicator stats in that Auburn upset that suggest Kentucky will at the very least be a dangerous spoiler come March. Let’s focus on aggression inside the arc:
Kentucky 82, Auburn 80
2-point shooting
Kentucky 61%
Auburn 50%
Free throws
Kentucky 24/33
Auburn 15/20
Rebounds
Kentucky 33
Auburn 26
Remember, this was a road game in front of a rabid Auburn crowd anticipating a statement win. Kentucky relentlessly attacked the basket … making better than 60 percent of its two-point shots while earning 13 additional free-throw attempts. That latter category wasn’t polluted by a late “parade” to the line to protect a lead. Kentucky trailed 80-79 with 24 seconds left.
A team that can own the paint and the glass like that on the road against a top-16 caliber opponent is going to be a handful for anybody on a neutral court in March.
Note that Kentucky also won those categories in that earlier upset of North Carolina. Back on Dec. 22, the Wildcats took two-point shooting 49 percent to 44 percent, free-throw attempts 22-16, and rebounds 44-33.
Handicappers and bettors shouldn’t overreact to one or two good games. Or a great week (Kentucky (-7 ¹/₂) crushed Georgia in Athens 69-49 last Tuesday). But, it’s worth remembering that it can take awhile for young teams with blue chip talent to jell. If this recent run suggests inexperience turning to experience, the talented Wildcats still have time to win the SEC and go deep in the Dance.
Be sure you monitor Kentucky in upcoming testers. After Tuesday’s home game versus Mississippi State, Kentucky hosts Kansas on Saturday before visiting Vanderbilt and Florida. Vandy is a non-entity right now. Those other games should have a March Madness feel to them.
And, remember to look beyond final scores to get a read on team skill sets. Bettors have a little more than a month to prepare for tournament basketball, where the ability to draw fouls and grab rebounds will likely loom very large.
