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Sometimes in sports betting, we need to worry about what not to do, instead of just trying to pick winners.
Here are four things to avoid as the sports calendar heats up in March.
1. Changing unit size
Money management may be the most important discipline needed to be a successful sports bettor. One of the worst things bettors can do is change their unit size based on how well or how poorly they’re doing. When you’re hot, never double down and risk more because you’re overconfident. When you’re cold, never chase and try to win it all back in one fell swoop.
Instead, we encourage bettors to embrace a flat-betting approach. This means betting the same amount on every game. If you have a $2,000 bankroll, betting 1 percent (so $20) is a fine approach.
A flat-betting approach will save bettors from going bankrupt when they hit an inevitable tough stretch. It will also provide bettors with a positive return on investment (ROI) when doing well.
2. Overreacting to recent trends
If a team looked great the previous game, or if it’s riding a four-game winning streak, novice bettors will automatically want to bet on it, simply because it’s playing well. Conversely, if a team just got blown out by 20 points or is on a five-game losing streak, novice bettors will automatically fade them.
But that’s a mistake. Historically, teams coming off a win are overvalued. The market may overvalue those teams.
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For example, say Purdue just came off a 21-point blowout win. The next game, the oddsmakers might have a true opener of Purdue -3, but since they know the public will take Purdue no matter what, they open -3.5 or -4. As a result, you are getting an overpriced and bad number.
This is why we generally encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news.
3. Gambler’s Fallacy
Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that if something happens more often than normal in a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future. For example, say you walk up to a roulette table and see that a black number has hit the past 10 spins. Your first thought might be to bet on red because it hasn’t happened in a while and it’s “due.”
But this logic is flawed: Every spin of the roulette wheel is made independent of past spins. The same theory applies to sports. If the Cubs lose the first two games of a three-game series to the Padres, it doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win the third game.
4. Too many plays
Bettors love to bet, but betting just for the sake of having action is never a good thing. Betting 10 or 15 games per night is dangerous. You are taking on massive risk, and one bad night can decimate your bankroll. Instead, bettors should stay disciplined and limit their plays to their most confident games of the day. You can never lose a bet you don’t make.
