How much is home-court advantage worth in the NBA? In most cases, the basic three points is used to quantify it. In some rare cases, like Denver and Utah, the homecourt could be worth four points due to the geographical advantages the teams possess.

If the basic three is used, then typically a swing from one court to another on the point spread would be about six points. However, for Game 3 of the first-round playoff series between the Spurs and Nuggets there is a clear 10-point adjustment from Denver to San Antonio. The adjustment is too much.

Yes, Denver needed 21 points from Jamal Murray in the fourth quarter to win and cover the previous contest in Denver, but the Spurs have also shown an inability to adequately guard Paul Millsap. Nikola Jokic was just two assists away from yet another triple-double and Denver will likely not miss the amount of open threes they did in Game 2.

With a clear over-adjustment on the line it is impossible not to take points with the road team in Game 3.

The play: Nuggets +3 ¹/₂.