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The 2022 Stanley Cup Final gets underway on Wednesday night. The Colorado Avalanche are -175 to win the series and -155 to win Game 1 over the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

Colorado has been dominant this postseason, going 12-2. The Avs have closed as the favorite in all 14 games but there are some reasons to think those numbers are a bit inflated based on the quality of their competition. Colorado blew the doors off of Nashville in Round 1, but the Preds were without their starting goaltender for all four games.  

The Avs then defeated St. Louis in six games, but the Blues were missing a lot of bodies on their blueline. And while it’s hard to poke holes in Colorado’s sweep of Edmonton, the Oilers aren’t a top defensive team by any stretch.

Not only are the Lightning one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, but they also have a decided edge in goaltending over Colorado. Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the best goalie in the world, while the Avs counter with Darcy Kuemper, who has been injured twice in the postseason and has yet to find his rhythm.

The Avalanche are coming off a nine-day layoff and likely will be without Nazem Kadri. There’s enough here to bet Tampa Bay to take Game 1 and if you’re feeling frisky, a bet on Vasilevskiy to pitch a shutout at 16/1 is worth a gamble as well.

The pick: Lightning, +135 (BetMGM)