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Series Moneyline: Flames -350/Stars +270

There is only one team in the NHL Playoffs with a negative goal differential on the season: The Dallas Stars.

Sometimes a team’s goal differential over the course of a season can get a bit noisy, but in this instance, the red mark next to Dallas’ name in the standings does a decent job at accurately portraying the type of team the Stars are. Which is to say, Dallas isn’t that good. 

That could be a bit of a problem in this matchup because Calgary has played like one of the NHL’s best teams all season long. Checking into the season as 45/1 outsiders, the Flames came roaring out of the gates and, save for a bit of a blip during the Covid-haze of December, never really slowed down.

The Flames rank first in 5-on-5 goal differential, first in goals allowed at 5-on-5, fifth in expected goals percentage, and fourth in high-danger scoring chance rate this season. In other words, this is as well-balanced a team as there is in the NHL right now. 

Dallas, on the other hand, is extremely top-heavy and overly reliant on its top line to do the heavy lifting. Against weaker opposition, the trio of Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson, and Roope Hintz can dominate a game, but the Flames have more than enough depth to make sure that Dallas’ top line isn’t able to steal the series. 

And while Dallas’ top line was one of the league’s strongest all season, they will be going up against the NHL’s best trio this series. Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Matthew Tkachuk each reached the 40-goal plateau this season and Gaudreau and Tkachuk each topped 100 points. And even if the top lines wash each other out, Calgary has the depth to win the battles down the lineup. The second line of Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Tyler Toffoli clicked as soon as Toffoli joined the Flames, while the third line of Dillon Dube, Calle Jarnkrok, and Blake Coleman should provide plenty of strong minutes against weaker opposition in this series. 

And even in the off chance that Calgary’s game nosedives, the Flames have Jacob Markstrom, one of the NHL’s best goaltenders backing them up. Jake Oettinger did a solid job of getting the Stars into the postseason in his first full season as an NHL starter, but he’s a couple of tiers below Markstrom in this matchup and his job will be much tougher than that of his counterpart. 

Not only are the Flames the deeper, more talented team by a wide margin, but they present a real matchup conundrum for the Stars. Dallas is relatively comfortable absorbing pressure and then springing counter-attacks, but the Flames are hyper-aware defensively and finished the season as the third-best team in the league at preventing high-danger scoring chances. 

Dallas is just two seasons removed from a surprise run to the Stanley Cup Final and I think the team’s reputation as a tough out is flattering them a bit here. The Flames have value on the series spread at -1.5 games (-145) and are also worth backing to sweep at +475.

Stars vs. Flamesseries prediction and bet: Calgary Flames -1.5 games (-145); Flames to sweep +475 (PointsBet)