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The Dallas Stars will head to Rogers Place to take on the Oilers on Wednesday night. The Oilers, who are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, are -160 favorites, while the Stars are currently hanging out at +140.
Flying under the radar a bit, the Oilers’ current 10-game run is a part of a terrific run of form since the team replaced Dave Tippett with Jay Woodcroft behind the bench.
Since the swap, the Oilers have gone 21-8-3 and have a +32 goal differential. Edmonton’s offense is still clicking, scoring 2.98 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 under Woodcroft, but the defense and goaltending have begun to click as well. Under Tippett, the Oilers were allowing 2.77 goals per 60 at even strength. That number has come down to 2.35 with Woodcroft manning the dry erase board.
Stars vs. Oilers odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: Stars +1.5 (-190) vs. Oilvers -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: Stars (+125) vs. Oilers (-155)
Total: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)
Stars vs. Oilers prediction
A lot of that defensive improvement has come down to the goaltending. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen both struggled mightily through the first half of the season, but Woodcroft’s arrival has seemingly sparked the duo, with Smith looking especially good of late.
Since March 1, Smith has played in 11 games and has skated to a .931 save percentage and a +9.18 Goals Saved Above Expected in that span.
But as often is the case when teams go on runs like the one Edmonton is on, the market will over-adjust and that looks to be what is happening in this instance.
Dallas Stars center Radek Faksa (12), center Luke Glendening (11) and San Jose Sharks Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesCheck Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps#
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The Stars are coming off a down performance against the Canucks on Monday night and have won just three of their past seven games, but their overall play over their last 15 games hasn’t been that concerning. Dallas is 9-4-2 with a -3 goal differential in that span, but the Stars have a 51.7% expected goals rate, which suggests they’ve been playing well enough to get results. The main problem for Dallas is that its offense has run cold, scoring just 2.14 goals per 60 minutes on 2.63 xG per 60 minutes over their last 15 games.
A little positive regression from the Stars should be expected, while the Oilers should start to come down to earth a little bit as we head towards the end of the season.
The Bet: Dallas Stars +135 or better (+142 on FanDuel)
