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Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Steelers vs. Bills predictions and picks for theirNFL Week 5 matchup, which is live Sunday at 1 p.m. EST on CBS.

The Kenny Pickett era is underway in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers have named the first-round pick their starter ahead of this week’s matchup against the AFC stalwart Buffalo Bills.

Steelers fans got their wish in the second half of last week’s home game against the New York Jets. After an ineffective first half, Mitch Trubisky was benched in favor of the rookie Pickett, whose stat line by the end of the game certainly was unique. He completed 10 of 13 passes, but the three outliers were all interceptions. He also ran for two touchdowns to put Pittsburgh in front before the Jets rallied for a 24-20 victory.

The Bills found themselves down 20-3 to the Baltimore Ravens late in the first half before they started a rally of their own. Josh Allen led four scoring drives, including scoring on an 11-yard run, and the Buffalo defense firmed up. The Ravens spurned a short field goal attempt late in the fourth quarter that would have put them ahead; instead, the Bills picked off Lamar Jackson in the end zone before embarking on the game-winning drive. Buffalo has now won seven of its last eight regular-season games.

This game has, far and away, the largest spread of Week 5. Vegas sees this as such a mismatch that it set a two-touchdown spread to entice bettors to consider putting money down on either side.

There’s good reason for that lopsidedness. Buffalo’s only loss came by two points in a divisional road game against the Miami Dolphins. The Bills have performed up to preseason expectations as the most well-rounded team in the NFL. They’ve already won games by both blowing opponents out and coming from behind.

Pittsburgh is no doubt in a rebuilding year — No. 1 wide receiver Diontae Johnson said so. “We can’t use that as an excuse,” Johnson added. “It doesn’t matter who is at quarterback or any position.”

But it does at least partially matter who’s starting at quarterback and going forward, that will be Pickett. He may have a bright future ahead of him, but in Week 5, the Bills’ defense will be waiting to give him his “Hey rookie, welcome to the NFL” moment. They’re tied for first in the NFL in total defense (234.5 yards per game allowed) and rank fifth with 13 sacks.

Don’t let the fearsome 14-point spread bother you. The Bills beat the defending Super Bowl champions by 21. And, not for nothing, they’re finally back in Buffalo after playing three of their first four games on the road. We’ll take the Bills and the points.

Pick: Bills to cover spread (-14) @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook.

The under hit in each of Buffalo’s last two games, but there’s reason to inspect that more closely.

Last week’s 23-20 win over Baltimore (O/U 50) was played in steady rain, where it’s harder to get an offense moving early and teams are liable to lose more turnovers. In a 21-19 loss to Miami the week before (O/U 54.5), the over/under was ridiculously inflated following Miami’s big 42-38 win over the Ravens the week before.

After a few modest weeks from the Bills’ offense, look for it to rebound in a major way.

Pittsburgh star pass rusher T.J. Watt is out for at least one more week with a torn pectoral muscle. The Steelers’ defense has performed admirably thus far without him. But after sacking Joe Burrow seven times in their season-opening win over Cincinnati, the Steelers have lost to quarterbacks Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Zach Wilson.

None of those guys are Josh Allen, who’s stating an early case for MVP. Some of his receivers may be hurt, but Stefon Diggs is not.

Our Pick: Over 46.5 points scored @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Pickett can sling the ball downfield, without a doubt, but when rookie NFL quarterbacks start to get their feet wet, tight ends and running backs become terrific safety blankets to check down to.

The Bills have smothered opposing starting running backs, who average less than 35 yards per game on the ground, but let’s focus on starting running back Najee Harris in a receiving role.

Few teams in the NFL rely on their No. 1 back more than the Steelers do Harris. He’s had 58 rushing attempts this season, while backup running back Jaylen Warren has taken just 14 handoffs. Harris’ 50.5 yards per game isn’t elite, but he picks up first downs at a strong rate.

Targeted 11 times in the passing game, Harris has 10 receptions, and Pickett is likely to turn to him if the pass rush warms the pocket. He’s found the end zone on one rushing touchdown and one receiving score. We like Harris to get involved early and often in the Steelers’ gameplan as they cope with the Buffalo defense — which, despite its many strengths, has given up four rushing TDs and one receiving score to opposing running backs this year.

Our Pick: Steelers RB Najee Harris to score TD @ +160 with Caesars Sportsbook.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.