VSiN’s college football expert offers his selections for two of the games on the New Year’s Day docket.

There have been so many significant opt-outs during the bowl season, but this game features a significant opt-in. Matt Corral suiting up for Ole Miss is a huge deal, as he accounted for nearly 4,000 yards and 31 total touchdowns during the season for the Rebels. Given that this is one of the few bowl games without key absences, Corral’s inclusion could be the turning point.

Baylor’s Gerry Bohanon will start here after missing time at the end of the regular season. While Bohanon was viewed as a huge player for Baylor, he had a 17/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to Corral’s 20/4 ratio. Corral also wad a more effective runner from a yards per play standpoint.

Baylor has the better defense and had a terrific running game with Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner, who combined for almost 2,200 yards. The Bears will have to run the ball effectively and limit the number of possessions for the Rebels, who have a very explosive offense, especially with Corral healthier than he has been in quite some time. The Big 12 was surprisingly light on explosive offenses and Baylor caught the more potent ones at good times or had positive turnover fortunes.

Dave Aranda had a head start prepping for Ole Miss given his previous role as the defensive coordinator at LSU, but the extended layoff for both teams should neutralize that advantage.

This should be a great game, but the quarterback edge for the Rebels is too much to overlook. Ole Miss allowed only 15 plays of 30 or more yards, so Baylor will look to attack with the run and play to the team’s strengths. Ole Miss will force Bohanon to throw and that should get Baylor out of its comfort zone.

Pick: Ole Miss, -1.5.

Iowa went 10-3 during the regular season, but I never really had much confidence in the Hawkeyes. Their ability to force turnovers at a high rate does appear to be more than just variance, given that it has happened for a while now, but this was a pathetic offense and a team that struggled badly when those takeaways weren’t there. In other words, there was no margin for error.

Up until Rutgers was gifted a spot in the Gator Bowl because of Texas A&M’s COVID issues, Iowa was far and away the worst team in yards per play to make it to a bowl game.

On defense, though, Iowa is a top-10 unit in the yards per play department. Iowa had 30 takeaways against just 16 giveaways for a +14 turnover margin. Kentucky goes into the bowl game with a -13 turnover margin. One team went 10-3. The other team went 9-3. It is amazing how the Wildcats were able to overcome such terrible turnover luck.

I doubt Iowa has an offense capable of hurting the Wildcats. Iowa’s run defense was excellent prior to the Big Ten Championship game, when Michigan had 6.2 yards per carry. Kentucky can move the ball and its 9-3 record in spite of a huge turnover margin deficit suggests this is a better all-around team than Iowa. The line suggests it as well. I’ll take the SEC squad here.

Pick: Kentucky, -3.