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Winning at sports betting often requires contrarian opinions and ugly picks.
The Connecticut Sun fit that profile with a WNBA-worst 3-20 record. But a deeper dive shows a more attractive option than at first glance.
Despite their grotesque record, they are a respectable 11-12 against the spread (ATS).
Plus, sharpshooter and arguably best player Marina Mabrey just returned from injury in their previous game.
Connecticut went just 1-8 in Mabrey’s absence, so I expect stronger play moving forward.
Plus, she came off the bench in Thursday’s loss against the Sparks and shot poorly (2-for-12 from the field), but rust was expected.
I anticipate a more conventional performance from the starting lineup.
The Sun host the Golden State Valkyries on Sunday as 6.5-point home underdogs with a total of 156.5 points.
Connecticut Sun guard Marina Mabrey (3) warms up before the start of the game against the Los Angeles Sparks at Mohegan Sun Arena. David Butler II-Imagn ImagesThe Valkyries are one of the league’s best stories, as an expansion team already surpassing their win total and currently competing for a playoff spot.
However, they just lost leading scorer Kayla Thornton for the season with a knee injury and though they won and covered their first game without her, I expect regression soon.
Also, Golden State is an elite 14-9 ATS, but they are much better at home and as an underdog.
The role of road favorite without their top player is a much different ask.
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Finally, the Valkyries are coming off an emotional home comeback win on Friday while playing without Thornton for the first time.
Now, this West Coast team plays early on Sunday just 36 hours later.
I have a 57-47-1 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is the Sun +6.5 points against Golden State (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
